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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian K Crawford who wrote (25431)	5/27/2000 12:24:00 PM
From: mauser96	Respond to of 54805

I've noticed the same thing,though it's hard to quantify it. Another sign is when the posts start to change from discussion of the stocks to discussion of personal profits. We are probably a lot closer to the end of this decline than to the beginning. To paraphrase Churchill, is it the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end<<gg>>? Who knows. However there is enough despair out there that I'm gradually starting to put some cash to work, despite the fact that P/E's are still not cheap. My guess is that this is a long overdue cyclical bear, but that the secular bull market is still intact. I hope I'm right.

To: Brian K Crawford who wrote (25431)	5/27/2000 1:52:00 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

O.T. re. The "tread bloat" TA indicator and other TA musings. As someone who has lurked on a variety of SI threads (as well as elsewhere), the positive correlation between unwarranted (and hence dangerous) enthusiasm in a stock and the number of posts is readily apparent. The inverse correlation (a dearth of posts and a near term bottom) is also observed. A converse correlation exists with number of posts on bearish threads (Clown and to a lesser extent MDD) and market bottoms. In fact there is an on going "project" on the MDD thread - documenting and plotting this very correlation. Noting the correlation and acting upon it however are two different things. One cautionary note should arise from the observation that manias can endure long beyond any rational expectation because they are inherently irrational. Everyone has their own set of beliefs wrt to ST and LT stock movement. In both cases a variety of factors influence the stock's price. LT, the performance of the company will have a profound influence; ST the dominant influence (IMO) is emotion (sentiment). Trying to profitably gauge emotion is at best tricky. Although I've spent a fair amount of time learning "charting techniques" and am more than conversant with their use, I've concluded that I (in a fundamental sense) will never be a chartist. Some people's brains are just more pictorial than others. That's not to say I don't frequently find charts useful. It's just when I observe the subtle deftness of a skilled chartist, my own abilities are that of a wobbly ankle skater compared to an Olympic champion. Having a more analytical turn of mind, I've tended toward indicators. I'm not claiming any great proficiency here either - just a more "natural fit' with my all too limited abilities. With indicators one is dealing with a variety of "straws in the wind" that have had certain "historical correlations". Things are never "clear cut" and one goes with a preponderance of the evidence after "assigning" (guessing ?) at weight factors of the various "straws". All of this can be very unsatisfying to someone who prefers definite concrete facts, but remember you are gauging emotion and what could be more fickle? For me ST is a totally different game than LT and ones chances of being equally successful in playing more than one game are about as good as Michael Jordan's proved to be. I'm in no way trying to discourage learning. Quite the opposite. Just trying to be realistic about the magnitude of the task. For anyone thinking of "branching out", I would advise caution and careful monitoring of risk. For example, anyone proficient in TA will tell you - news trumps TA. If you are dealing with a stock that is largely news driven, that should give you pause. This tread's emphasis is LTB&H. There are many different "games" being played simultaneously in the market and skilled practitioners in many of these "market niches" can be profitable. However, since the "rules for success" differ in the various games, a blurring of which game one is playing can be hazardous. All of this is presented in a FWIW spirit and is certainly JMHO. Hanging around... lurqer