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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HammerHead who wrote (23668)	5/27/2000 12:38:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

MAY 27 INDEX UPDATE --------------------- SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL READINGS: DOW - PENDING WEAK CLASS 1 BUY SIGNAL SPX - LOWER MIDRANGE OEX - LOWER MIDRANGE NAZ - MIDRANGE NDX - LOWER MIDRANGE VIX - 27.88, LOWER MIDRANGE NEAR OVERSOLD REGION(inverse to market) 5-DAY TRIN - approximately 5.95(had to eyeball it this time) CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO - .65 Per my short-term technicals there is significant upside room potential for the DOW/SPX/OEX, but if the market continues straight up the NAZ/NDX would get to the OVERBOUGHT region in about 2 days and into CLASS SELL territory in 3 DAYs. So the upside potential in the NAZ/NDX is more limited than that for the NAZ/NDX. I am expecting some sort of a short-term rally next week, but if this rally does not produce HIGHER HIGHs, keeping it simple, such would imply that the DOWNTREND is still intact. The 5-DAY TRIN is still around 6 which implies short-term buy territory The CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO increase slightly to .65. I consider .65 to still be in the neutral area but since it did increase a little, I feel that the fear level did increase a little, but just a little, nowhere near a peak/capitulation region. What is interesting is that my short-term readings on the VIX is already close to the OVERSOLD REGION(inverse to market) and if the market continues up the VIX is only 1-2 days from a CLASS BUY, which is a SELL SIGNAL for the OEX/market. As mentioned previously, I have noticed that in a trading range/downtrend my VIX indicator has gained significant accuracy, to the extent that during this downtrend this signal hasnt missed once out of about 8 times. Although that is still not statistically viable, it does have merit. Also, the VIX INDICATOR is giving a hint that this forthcoming rally may not last too long. However, my short-term technicals for the DOW/SPX/NAZ are somewhat out of line, so I need to watch this carefully. In our MUTUAL FUND, we closed the URPIX(short-SPX) position, and opened a small ULPIX(long-SPX) position. We also have a HEDGED position with the USPIX/UOPIX(short & long NDX). Our current overall position in the FUND is slightly biased to the upside for the short-term(1-5 days). For the mid/longer-term(30+ days) view, I would start to become less bearish/more bullish IF: DOW - if able to break above declining trendline/50 DMA at 10750-10825(for next week) SPX - if able to break above declining trendline/50 DMA at 1450-1440 (for next week) NAZ - if able to set a HIGHER HIGH above 3730 NOTE: The DECLINING TRENDLINE and the 50 DMA for the DOW/SPX are in same region For the mid/longer-term, my position is still that we are in a TRADING RANGE, regardless of what the NAZ does, and as long as the SPX stays above 1340. So I am still TRADING RANGE BEARISH, but if 1340 is broken to the DOWNSIDE I would become VERY BEARISH. Likewise, if the above targets in the DOW/SPX/NAZ are broken to the upside I would become less bearish/more bullish. Here are some of the resistance areas which would need to be broken to the upside, even before the DOW/SPX/NAZ can approach the IMPORTANT TARGETS mentioned above: DOW - 10560, 10685 NAZ - 3345-3370, 3515-3540, 21 DMA 3550(21 DMA has been resistance for previous upswings) SPX - 1400, 1412, 1435 Since I could get various SELL SIGNALs before/by the end of next week, which is not alot of time, I am suspecting that this SPECIFIC short-term rally may not produce HIGHER HIGHs; therefore such would imply that the DOWNTREND may still be intact. If TUE is up VERY STRONG, and I repeat VERY STRONG, then there is a chance that HIGHER HIGHS could be set, but for the time being Im not the optimistic. In light of such, my trading bias for the short-term(1-5 days) is only slightly bullish as illustrated by our current positions/trades in our MUTUAL FUND ACCOUNT. seeya