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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Zeev Hed who wrote (52396)5/27/2000 7:35:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 99985
 
Zeev, cost of money should be around 3% above inflation to have a non inflationary expansion. Also governments should be honest about the statistics they desseminate.

Non of the above was done under this administration, or in other countries like Japan for example.

Playing with statistics and interest rates for personal or political gain is criminal as defined by law. Just try to submit an in accurate financial statement to an FDIC insured bank.

As to gold may I differ to your assumption - gold as a growth hindering asset and generator of inflation.

Inflation is achieved by monetary and fiscal policies of governments and CB's and not by gold.

BWDIK
Haim



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (52396)5/28/2000 8:11:00 AM
From: Roebear  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Zeev Hed,
I agree there is no reason to believe the CB's want to return to a gold standard and that this would not be a good objective for their country's economies. OTOH, I do not think the heavy derivatives exposure of many is a good thing either.

I would not directly correlate a store of value for gold and the gold standard. As for being a store of value, in the US dollar and Yen, gold has not stored value well the last few years, while in the DM and Euro gold has increased in value as those currencies have plummeted. Measured in DM, gold is about the same level as 1997. Note also the performance of gold price in the currency of the Asian countries during the Asia crisis 97/98. Therefore, I must disagree and maintain that gold still has some store of value function (long term), its just not very apparent to US dollar holders lately(short term).

However if you adjust for inflation from last days of the "fixed" price for gold (1971) to now, you come close to the current gold price in US dollars. If you go farther back to compare, it is not as close now, but was in the ballpark with the price of gold a few years ago.

Exceeding the store of value function (short term movements) for gold is its indicator value to the US dollar hegemony.
Sentiment can swing the gold price far faster and farther short term then the store of value function could respond.

As a speculator then, rather than a goldbug, there are still attractive qualities to gold stocks during these swings. It is relatively simple trading actually, timing is everything, up is down and down is up, and if you wait for the warning signs, you are already
dead, VBG.

Best Regards,

Roebear