Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (10614)	5/28/2000 3:53:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

OT/Dipy: DIS or JDSU or Naz: wait 22 years for recovery?= No--> ipsfunds.com " May 26, 2000: Historical Comfort Food. The best way to demonstrate why I think the Nasdaq is so close to a bottom that the downside risk here is negligible is simply to look at history. I chose to start on January 1, 1971, because the subsequent 30 years easily includes the worst bear market since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Following is a bit of Nasdaq history that we have gotten from the Nasdaq itself, and from our friends at Solomon Smith Barney and Credit Suisse First Boston. We begin with the Nasdaq Composite Index around 100 in early 1971. [ see chart ] If we examine the table of bear markets above, clearly the 1973 - '74 period was a historical abberation, as was the Great Depression of the 1930s. During the '73 - '74 bear market, the Vietnam War was at its peak, inflation was beginning to accelerate dramatically, productivity was in a steep decline, oil shocks had hit an economy heavily dependent on oil, living standards were declining, and we were in a period of correction from a speculative bubble in the very early 1970s. The only factor in common today with the '73 - '74 bear market is the correction from a speculative bubble caused by Greenspan and the Fed. That's now over. We are experiencing today the exact opposite of what happened then. We are not at war, inflation is zero and stable, productivity is climbing sharply, oil is now a minor factor in our economy, we are in a period of dramatically increased discovery, innovation and wealth creation, and living standards are rising dramatically. It seems clear to me that this correction is much more like the rest of the corrections over the last 30 years. In other words, we are near the maximum length of other major corrections, and we have exceeded the maximum of the range of losses of these corrections. Unless the Fed and Congress both screw up as colossally as they did in the 1930s, which is unlikely, to say the least, the worst is behind us. If you sell now, history says you will be selling at the worst possible time. I hope the table above helps you put this correction in perspective. As I keep saying, risk is minimal, and all that's required now is patience. Sometimes that's just life. Live it. TA -------------------------- To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (10613) From: Dipy Saturday, May 27, 2000 3:53 PM ET Reply # of 10628 Tunica: I don't know what the hell you are talking, but within 21 months of Robert Wade's statement, Disney stock had come down 82%! Perhaps the only way that you could have held on was if you had gotten Mr. Wade's crystal ball that told you that you will break even with the index some 22 YEARS later, and beat it 6 years after that!