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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (25452)	5/27/2000 6:31:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Cha2, I was not referring to 1XRTT (1xMC) as "vaporware". Phase 0 has been in hard specification for at least a month, maybe 2. Several manufacturers that constitute Qualcomm's value chain and participate with Qualcomm in 3GPP2 have been designing infrastructure to it for some time, based on the preliminary standard released last July, and now that the phase 0 standard is fixed we can get around to the hard part ... commercial terminal design and manufacture. Bear one thing in mind. 1XRTT (1xMC) in full IMT-2000 drag will not be in commercial operation much quicker than IMT-2000 UMTS (WCDMA) DS 'Release 99'. Although the development of UMTS began much earlier than cdma2000 and has been in trial much longer, it is likely that it will not deliver the benefits (meaningful higher data rates) as quickly as cdma2000. It is 1XRTT (1xMC) WITH HDR that I refer to as "vaporware". Standards work just began in 3GPP2. It will go fast, so not "vaporware" for long, but "vaporware", none the less. << The spec's are set, the hardware and the software available, so onward and upward >> The spec's ain't set (no standard), the hardware and the software (comercially deployable) ain't available. In addition, putting things in Gorilla Game perspective. Qualcomm has enjoyed the benefit of honchoing a proprietary open standard rather than having to participate in the development of a "committee based standard". Essentially they have been the "committee". This is changing in the 3G world. The "committee" is getting larger. 3GPP2 work could slow for this reason. Today you have QCOM & ERICY nicely partnered there, but you also have Nokia, Motorola, and several powerful carriers who operate in the GSM world as well as the CDMA world. While we are on the subject of "committee based architecture" I would like to point out that this is a subject that Geoffrey Moore does not develop well in the FM or RFM. If he ever publishes a third edition (RRFM) maybe he will expand on it, and 3G wireless mobile telephony could be a great example. << I see China starting out with 1XRTT and then following on with HDR. I do not see significant installation of IS-95 A or B >> You are then projecting no commercial implementation for in the next 24 months which is the minimum time frame I see for such an implementation if it began tomorrow, which it can't, because handsets that will operate with 1XRTT and GSM are at least that far away and I don't think that commercially deployable infra is either. I'm so darned optimistic, even about the crazy mess that is China, I still think that an IS-95 A (easily upgradeable to 1XRTT) buildout could commence shortly. This is a bit of a dilemma. In the GSM world (existing frequency) you build out GPRS. Infa has been shipping for 6 months (even in the US) because standards were set some time ago and handsets will follow. China (the largest GSM market in the world although Tero would say the EU was) is doing both GPRS upgrade and new infra. In the cdma world you wait for commercially available upgrades to existing IS-95 A or B infra like Korea is doing, then wait for handsets (like the GPRS guys will do.) If you build out greenfields you hope your infra provider cuts you a heck of a deal, because the economies of scale simply do not exist in cdmaland today. This also gets us back to the confusing issue of whether cdma2000 is 2.5G or 3G. Do you think that 1xMC phase 0 is 3G? - Eric -