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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (67243)	5/27/2000 6:44:00 PM
From: stevedhu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, nice sobering post. Have a Great Weekend Take Care Steve

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (67243)	5/27/2000 9:06:00 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Good Post Slider, You have convinced me to take a more defensive posture next week. In the last week, I have let my cash position drop to about 18% as I looked for quickies. Nailed KLAC, in at 42, out at 50.5, but still holding the CAM and NOK that I picked up. So now I am foraging around my port looking for trim candidates. I have a very strict trading discipline that I refuse to violate - once you violate the rule the first time, you start rationalizing and then do it again and again, until the disciple is gone. Think of diets, drinking, sex, etc.. My rule for my main portfolio is this: never sell a stock at a loss. Two exceptions: 1) Stock has broken down on concrete news specific to that company. 2) Rule suspended in month of December to allow tax loss selling If I am to follow my rules, I need to keep CAM and NOK until I am able to extract a profit. I hold a couple other techs as well with relatively large losses, I'm basically stuck with them for now. So to build up cash I am looking at shaving SFS, which I now perceive as having limited upside potential. If I get some small pops, I will be able to flip CAM and NOK. Furthermore, I recently established a trading position in OEI in the 14's which is now profitable (though I'd like more). If I can liquidate these positions, I can move up to about 40-45% cash, and ready for the next "gifthorse". Warp

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (67243)	5/28/2000 1:03:00 AM
From: MetalTrader	Respond to of 95453

Although the market was very sleepy on friday, a couple items concern me and will be the focus of next week for me. As I have mentioned before I have been buying into metals as well as oil for some months. Analyst calls and anecdotal evidence has has been quite negative this past week in areas which I expected to be relatively "safe". Steel prices are falling and contracts are being cancelled and delayed. Scrap prices are falling in steel, zinc, aluminum and lead. With the exception of Ford the auto makers are seeing significant declines in sales. Large truck business is a disaster. Inventories in pulp and paper are unexpectedly large and paper and wood product companies are being downgraded. Some of the evidence of the past week simply did not exist two weeks ago. It's been a sudden shift. This has a familiar feel to it as when the phone simply stopped ringing in March 1979 in the metals business. At that time prices fell from very lofty and speculative levels unlike today, but still there is something ominously familiar. I spoke with metal traders this past week who have shifted 180 degrees from being oversold and scrambling to make deliveries within the last month to now voicing concern that buyers would honor contracts. Watching the price action in Ford, Phelps Dodge, Alcoa, Georgia Pacific among others on Friday certainly gives me pause. A low volume exaggeration? Maybe. But, while oil and oil service continues to be my largest allocation I too must echo the caution that no one is necessarily immune. MT