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To: John Madarasz who wrote (52407)	5/27/2000 6:04:00 PM
From: NinjaDancer	Respond to of 99985

Message 13789073 Opinions?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (52407)	5/27/2000 6:43:00 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

re: Diary of a Fund Manager John, How many of those historic corrections were proceeded by blowoffs, parabolic markets? 37% off sale on something (Naz) that was overvalued by a factor of 5 still doesn't seem cheap to me. Nor does the market behavior of the last couple years seem to be anything like that of the last 30 years? <<It seems clear to me that this correction is much more like the rest of the corrections over the last 30 years. In other words, we are near the maximum length of other major corrections, and we have exceeded the maximum of the range of losses of these corrections. >> M.

To: John Madarasz who wrote (52407)	5/27/2000 7:10:00 PM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

John, interesting piece ... but I tend to subscribe to one of the theories put forward over time on this thread ... I think initially by Don Sew. That is that the market is somewhat like a rubber band ... the degree to which it is stretched one way, dictates how far it will come back in the opposite direction. Further, like all rubber bands, it will actually overshoot. Now that the trend has reversed, the 'snapback' must be fulfilled before it reverses. All this within the frame of the relative trend period of course.... Friday was a BIG distribution day ..... Stephen

To: John Madarasz who wrote (52407)	5/27/2000 8:40:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

The odd thing about each of those Nasdaq bear markets. They entirely wiped out the preceding year's gains from the low and then some in each case. You can retrieve the monthly open/high/low/close for the Nasdaq: chart.yahoo.com The Nasdaq today is still about 1000 points or about 40 percent above the 52-week low at 2230. In 1987, the Nasdaq fell to 306. The 52-week low prior to the decline from August to October was 351. In 1998, the Nasdaq fell to 1475 by September and the 52-week low prior to the decline was 1560. Perhaps, my math is wrong and I'm also not saying that this would happen in this current time frame. It's clear that when only 10 percent of the margin debt has been reduced there's still a lot of air in those accounts as opposed to equity.

To: John Madarasz who wrote (52407)	5/27/2000 9:58:00 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99985

the Loest data is far from comforting,if a bull,in my opinion,as he pays zero interest in the acceleration factor. The acceleration from 1,000 to 2,000 was a paltry snails pace of 100% in 36 months,while the move from 3,000 to 5,000 was a speedometer breaking,pedal to the metal 40% in 5 months. My totally unscientific rate of recoil theory would indicate the worst isn't over. this opinion of mine is offered for amusement only.max