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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EricRR who wrote (113095)	5/27/2000 11:55:00 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1576297

Ratbert, So lets turn it around and say that Willy executes according to plan. What does this mean for AMD? What is the plan? I think the plan was to sell hundreds of thousands in 2H 2000. Then there was another plan that called for I believe 2 million Willys in 2000. If Intel meets plan 1 (and all variables on which it depends are in place), AMD will have a great year. The success will not even depend on Mustang core being released on time, since Thunderbird / Duron should do just fine, and AMD should gain market share. If Intel meets plan 2 (and all variables on which it depends are in place), AMD's should still do well, but the future will depend on Mustang being on time and being competitive with Willy. You can assign your probability to that, but there is just very little data available. You can read the paper that Hans published. He compiled the data that is available about the designs of these CPUs, their likely per clock performance, the process technologies and likely clock speeds. Of course there is a third possibility of Intel not being able to deliver Willy in 2000, chipsets not being ready, motherboards not working, not RDRAM shortage, and under this scenario, AMD will print money. Then we have the doomsday scenario of recession in 2H 2000, Intel performing superbly, demand low so that Intel catches up with it, and AMD being late with Mustang, Mustang not improving clock speeds enough, and AMD ending up fighting for crumbs again. Joe

To: EricRR who wrote (113095)	5/28/2000 12:33:00 AM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 1576297

Re: Willy Willy Willy... This is the real cloud hanging over our little AMD. Another issue - AMD's biggest problem for quite some time has been the perception that Intel was a far more reliable supplier. At one time, that was an accurate perception. The result was that Intel could demand a premium from its customers, and its design wins were automatic. AMD wasn't even represented in the corporate market - it wasn't offered the opportunity to compete. In the last year, Intel has disappointed and damaged its OEM customers. AMD is not yet considered completely reliable, but now neither is Intel. AMD has now won the opportunity to compete in markets that previously were completely closed to it. AMD is now being supported by infrastructure suppliers that had always shunned it before (Abit pushing an AMD only motherboard - impossible!). AMD is getting industry wide support for its DDR solution for desktops and small servers, while Intel infuriates the industry by continuing to insist upon Rambus. AMD now has two independent processes (Aluminum .18 and Copper .18/.15) in production that are both competitive - they can tolerate a problem in either without facing a disaster. Intel's "copy exactly" system has resulted in a larger company with many more FABs relying upon a single process (Aluminum .18) - a single point of failure. I think that AMD, if it were to need to, could do what Intel has been doing for the last 8 months - making money while being 100-200MHZ behind in the sweet spot of its shipping processors. Sure Intel would have made more money had they been able to keep up with AMD - but despite the current problems, Intel is still making plenty of money. There are a lot of companies that will consider is necessary to maintain an alternative to Intel only as a CPU source - especially since Intel appears determined to make Willamette run only with Intel chipsets on Intel motherboards. Given that Intel has been an unreliable source for CPUs, chipsets, and motherboards recently, who would want to bet his company on them? Previously, if Intel got the CPU right, VIA, or ALi or Sis, could bail them out on the chipset. Now going with Intel means accepting multiple single points of failure. And the time necessary to ramp up on a completely new platform has recently been demonstrated to be a number of very painful months. AMD will be OK. Dan

To: EricRR who wrote (113095)	5/28/2000 1:00:00 AM
From: milo_morai	Respond to of 1576297

TOP 25 LARGEST AREA EMPLOYERS-Oregon 1. Intel Corporation 11,000 2. Fred Meyer, Inc. 10,100 3. Providence Health System 8,938 4. Oregon Health Sciences University 8,352 5. Legacy Health System 6,731 6. U.S. Bank of Oregon 6,533 7. Tektronix, Inc. 4,680 8. Kaiser Permanente Northwest Division 4,287 9. Freightliner Corporation 4,205 10. Safeway, Inc./Portland Division 4,000 11. Fort James Corporation 3,900 12. Meier & Frank Company 3,500 13. U S WEST 3,440 14. United Parcel Service 3,100 15. McDonald's Corporation 3,000 16. NIKE, Inc. 2,850 17. Portland General Electric 2,700 17. Precision Castparts Corporation 2,700 19. Wells Fargo 2,588 20. Albertsons Food Centers 2,500 20. Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) 2,500 20. Volt Services Group 2,500 23. Regence BlueCross BlueShield of Oregon 2,105 24. Shari's Management Corporation 2,000 24. Southwest Washington Medical Center 2,000 (Some figures include part-time employees) Source: Largest Employers of the Portland Metropolitan Area--August 1998 pdxchamber.org FWIW Milo