To: Bill Harmond who wrote (104259 ) 5/28/2000 12:07:00 PM From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz Respond to of 164684
>> AMSC, AMZN, ARBA, BRCD, BVSN, CMRC, CRA, DCLK, EBAY, HGSI, ICGE, INSP, ITRA, MU, NPSP, PHCM, QXLC, SCMR, SCON, SONE, SYBB, VCNT, VIGN, VRSN, VRTA, YHOO. << William, I'd like to pursue an idea a little bit. I don't know much about the names you posted here. But the idea is more general than specific names. For sure, as you have posted a couple days ago, you have brought more stocks to this thread than nearly anyone. Certainly multiples more than me. My observation is that the best performers were the names that transitioned from unknown to darlings. No brainer. But the process of you discovering them was what KIS accuses you all the time. Which is you got them from conferences and from reading Morgan Stanley research. Of course there is no shame in that. My point is there are two phases for a stock. 1) when it goes from unknown to known. That happens by brokers spreading the word through the afore-mentioned methods. You have been great at finding those. And if the brokers succeed, it goes 10x in a month. Then there is phase 2, which is how the stock does on its own. Please excuse me for saying, that projecting the rise from phase 1 and assuming it will continue through phase 2 is an unproven concept. And my assumption is that success in phase 2 depends on different factors from success in phase 1. Phase 1 has to do with market sentiment, timing, general climate of liquiditiy, and how hard brokers pump. Phase 2 has to do with sector economics, specific company issues, competition, etc.... The only way to benefit from phase 1 is to pump and dump. I am not saying you do that. I am saying the brokers do that and it is important to realize it, otherwise you'll always get hit by (tradeable ?) severe corrections. Also there is not neccessarily a positive correlation between success in pump phase and the operational phase. So is it possible to know when phase 1 has ended (dump all your newly minted stocks) and when success in phase 2 is looking likely (build or increase positions) ? Maybe this is wasting time, but I wonder if in making your list you've considered this observation ? Anyway, my results are only a little less dismal than anyone else in this drop. And I didn't have the big run-up as a consolation. So maybe it is best to ignore my ideas.