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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bluegreen who wrote (13690)	5/28/2000 9:36:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Respond to of 17367

blue, anti-cd11a in transplants for antirejection remained to be seen, give three years minimun to developed. How much? will it be the drug of choice? the wunderkind? well maybe half a billion... otherwise, a me too drug (there are 50 in the market?), maybe $20M to $30M. the key to anti-cd11a is that lymphocytes goes up, not down like other drugs, but it does not matter if despite inmune cells going up the fuction goes down and inmunesuppresion is as rude as existing drugs. Look at recent success in diabetes/beta cells transplants, former toxic drugs (cyclosporine, cyclophosphamide, metotrexate) made it a failure, but new less toxic ones (sacrolimus, tarrolimus, daclizumab attention to the mab part) made it a success. Could hu1124 anticd11a activity be even less toxic? I have no evidence for it, neither of improved efficacy, but with the psoriasis patients some knowledge could come later over the years. But doses are going to probable be lower in psoriasis than antirejection therapy. summary: too far for me to make money on it, Qualcomm is too cheap now and for end of year will be double or triple, making $billion in earnings, not just sales. Too many good prospects: icos, epix, sprx, allp,dsco,even lgnd. Even proven biotechs are cheap now: amgn, bgen, chir. why xoma? surely, not my money.

To: Bluegreen who wrote (13690)	5/28/2000 9:38:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Respond to of 17367

Blue, anti-cd11a in transplants for antirejection remained to be seen, give three years minimun to developed. How much? will it be the drug of choice? the wunderkind? well maybe half a billion... otherwise, a me too drug (there are 50 in the market?), maybe $20M to $30M. the key to anti-cd11a is that lymphocytes goes up, not down like other drugs, but it does not matter if despite inmune cells going up the fuction goes down and inmunesuppresion is as rude as existing drugs. Look at recent success in diabetes/beta cells transplants, former toxic drugs (cyclosporine, cyclophosphamide, metotrexate) made it a failure, but new less toxic ones (sacrolimus, tarrolimus, daclizumab attention to the mab part) made it a success. Could hu1124 anticd11a activity be even less toxic? I have no evidence for it, neither of improved efficacy, but with the psoriasis patients some knowledge could come later over the years. But doses are going to probable be lower in psoriasis than antirejection therapy. summary: too far for me to make money on it, Qualcomm is too cheap now and for end of year will be double or triple, making $billion in earnings, not just sales. Too many good prospects: icos, epix, sprx, allp,dsco,even lgnd. Even proven biotechs are cheap now: amgn, bgen, chir. why xoma? surely, not my money.