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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Strauss who wrote (20035)	5/28/2000 2:34:00 PM
From: Sergio H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Jim, good points on the NDX. Isn't there an old saying that preaches selling in May and buying back in Sept.? Even though the overall market is taking a break, wouldn't you agree that there's plenty of opportunities knocking? Sergio

To: James Strauss who wrote (20035)	5/28/2000 8:22:00 PM
From: Gary105	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

i expect short term counter-trend trader's rally taking NDX up by as much as 20% stopping short of 200 d MA, followed by declines to new lows over the summer. all imo, Gary

To: James Strauss who wrote (20035)	5/30/2000 1:43:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Hi Jim, I noticed you're focusing on the NDX. Tech oriented. Then there's the DJIA...recently more tech weighted with the introduction of MSFT and INTC but the DDs, WMTs and MCDs etc still carry the real weight there. Then there's the S&P...shifting toward tech but more slowly and much more evenly weighted as far as the effect of individual issues. My contention... It's obvious that the DJIA and NDX have been "see-sawing" lately. Where there's a see-saw, there's a fulcrum. Influentially underlying market movement may very well be viewed as that of a tide. When the tide's in...the level is up. When the tide's out...the level is down. Where it has been seen that the NDX and the Dow are at opposite ends of a see-saw...it can easily be surmised that their short-term (3 to 6 mos) relative movements have been dictated at least as much by waves as they have been by the tide. So...what's the fulcrum that gives a clearer picture of the tide rather than getting chopped by the waves? The Wilshire is definitely too broad and as such will always lag...BUT the S&P has enough breadth and enough representative turnover to be the fulcrum. NDX is down over 30% from its high. S&P...broader yet very much in tune with leadership is down approximately 10%. Watch the fulcrum...not the ends of the see-saw. The fulcrum is a better gauge of the tide...the extremities follow the tide in general but also throw the waves in your face. Doug R