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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (8589)	5/28/2000 4:13:00 PM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18137

Dan: One other guy I respect as a market timer, Bob Brinker, I believe, is looking for a counter trend rally here too. FWIW. I see so much shorting now, even on stocks down 70-90% from their highs, that I can't help but have the stray thought that maybe the smarter money is covering shorts now and leaving the bagholders, much like they did with the longs from January - March. Who knows. Better just to react, eh?

To: Dan Duchardt who wrote (8589)	5/29/2000 1:01:00 AM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18137

FWIW I cleaned up my S&P chart some, and added precision to my reading by actually calculating the 20 period average of the log and the corresponding S&P level. The average is farther away than I originally thought. The S&P will touch the 20ma on the monthly log chart if it closes at 1314 end of May. That's well below the recent uptrend line noted in my earlier message, and it would be the lowest low since Oct99. I created a similar chart for the monthly low instead of the close. The history of the relation to the 20ma on this chart is much the same as for the closing price chart. The 20ma will be touched if we make a low of 1249, which is almost the Oct99 low. That would be a retrace of 20% off the high, comparable to the 22% retrace we saw from the Jul98 high to the Oct98 low. Won't be pretty if we get there, but the uptrend line and a couple of prior lows would have to be taken out along the way. I'll get really nervous and cut some long term positions if that trend line gets broken. Dan