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To: Gersh Avery who wrote (23709)	5/28/2000 5:16:00 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Gersh, That was exactly what I was talking about .. Liquidity being drained from the market, on a regular basis, over decades. This would be the same liquidity that has played a part in the markets moving up for so long as it has been added in on a regular basis. I think "liquidity being drained from the market" is overstating the situation. While I can't give a precise quantitative definition of "liquidity", I think we agree that it is fueled by new money entering the market and that the baby boomers have been responsible for much of that new money. However, the end of the baby boom was not the end of births, and the population of the post baby boom era did not decline to nothing. If the baby boomers generally leave their capital in the market, as I intend to do, while the smaller number of post baby boomers continue to contribute new money, we will certainly see a reduction in the rate at which liquidity has increased, but that does not equate to a drain. If there is a to be a drain, I don't see it starting with the onset of retirement of the front end of the baby boomers. It's a couple of decades farther out, and it's anybody's guess what the market or the rest of the world will be like then. Perhaps the market will be worldwide and the vast population now living in or near poverty will be pouring money into the market in quantities that will make the baby boomers contribution look like chicken feed. Dan

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (23709)	5/28/2000 6:03:00 PM
From: drsvelte	Respond to of 42787

I am on the leading edge of the boomers, age-wise anyway, and retirement is 10 years or so away. I don't plan to alter my asset allocation toward more fixed income instruments for 4-5 years. More importantly, there is even a bigger cohort of boomers behind me who are now just entering their peak income earning years. Baring economic meltdown, I suspect liquidity will increase, not decrease, for the next 6-8 years.

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (23709)	5/29/2000 12:20:00 PM
From: Oak Tree	Respond to of 42787

Gersh, (and perhaps I'm speaking for Dan) the liquidity will end up being more like an endowment. I doubt many of the baby boomers will be taking huge sums of money out of their retirement each year to fund their retirements, probably, the money will be self replentishing for many. Hence, not much effect on the market. It is also important to realize that population will be significantly higher in 10 to 25 years than it was 10 years ago or now. More people in the mix to average out the withdrawals. If people pass on their money to heirs or charities, the money will continue to grow in the market.