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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bluegreen who wrote (13693)	5/28/2000 9:04:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Respond to of 17367

Bluegreen, remember IPIC/citicoline/Takeda? Takeda put $10 millions and got burned, but they were just looking around, they sell the garbage in Japan, it did not work, they have another tax relatedloss, total loss somewhere in the $1M to $3M range. J&J put $30M in Allp, Liquivent does work, they left with some first choice negotiation for later. Hoescht left some $20M in the table, takeover and reorganization made it a tax priority and the product Imagent is Allp most advance. J&J left Amylin with $100M, poor trials, and now Amln is back, probably J&J will be back. Ergo disastrous drug, J&J again left some $20M. Bax had the "blood substitute" killer they cancel and kept going, many million$ loss. They bet on NVX (better bet this time) and at least a big lost of time for the payoff to happen. Pfizer, mightypharma, never fails? Neurogen got them for some $50M and a total failure. Not to mentioned xoma dumped E5 on them. Big pharma has left many group products on the table, they have taken faith on many more garbage. Just because big pharma is around, it does not mean sure thing.

To: Bluegreen who wrote (13693)	5/28/2000 9:22:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17367

Part II, I said Bax knew (or worse did not)about poor meningo data, the 4th of July fireworks and $35M bucks was clearly designe to limit losses, ok granted everybody does it. It was a cheap bet that could have pay, it did not. The real enticement was "Gw's lovely next indication", and I repeat "abdominal infections" is the next one, and the one Bax was interested all along, dyalisis patients are prone to abdominal infections, many times with resistant organisms, and a killer too. But why is it different to meningo? meningo is superacute, very fast, couple of hours are crucial, but the intrabdominal infections are acute/subacute time constrain is matters of days and sometimes weeks, bpi could prove itself of value, also a lot of inflammatory material in these intrabdominal infections, but tendency to be local, with some systemic effects, sometimes a lot even shock, but many do survive. summary: Bax knew of meningo poor chances(and if true my hat to them, if they did not bax is just a bunch of idiot and bears bad for xoma), the price they paid was a token of decency, to get to the pricy one, the one they know:intraabdominal infections. Their network of clients is already there, they could get all the patients in a timely mannered, no need to built a new clinical infrastructure from zero. the numbers are going to be in the hundreds maybe couple of thousands patients, recruitment definitely faster than meningo, more like the fast trama recruitment. bax just got a foot in, they pay $10 misserable million$, they could even end up taking the company, hu1124 is of value to them too, and they will probably treat management better deal than DNA, look at bax past, they have built a biotech business big like chiron/bgen/medi just out of acquisitions and they are heavy on the same behavior. I think I put my money in bax, not xoma.