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Technology Stocks : ATI Technologies in 1997 (T.ATY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OrionX who wrote (5571)	5/29/2000 9:08:00 AM
From: Stocker	Respond to of 5927

What I wonder is why ATI announced what they did so early as many would have held off till the qtr closed. Anyone have any ideas? Because the quarter looked real bad and they felt they had a duty to reveal the bad news ASAP. I think that says a lot about the credibility of ATI management actually. Every company I follow has at least two competitors. So, ATI having Intel and Nvidia is nothing new. They been there for many of the past qtrs and ATI has grown nonetheless. Grown in the past does not equal growth in the future. In fact, companies growing above the norm, which ATI was very successful at doing, are more likely to return to the mean eventually. As for, shrinking margins, flat to shrinking revenue growth, negative earnings you can't make the argument that this current qtr represents the future. It's an easier argument to make than the one that ATI will quickly turn things around and resume their previous growth path. If you look back in time at this stock's price, you'll see that analyst upgrades have never provided any significant impact in stock appreciation, yet their negative comments have always caused a stock price decline. Analyze this and tell why. Why is because the market has always been skeptical of companies in the graphics space. ATI's competition is well known for earnings blowups, product misses, etc. ATI has been lumped in this crowd, not because of their previous performance, but by virtue of the industry they're in. Call it unfair but that's the way the market plays it. As for the negative analyst reports, people put more credence in them because they're not all to common. I said this before. Buy reports are a dime a dozen, sell's aren't. Sometimes the sells are all BS too, but people tend to sit up and take notice when an analyst sticks his neck out. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying ATI can't come back. It could all change very quickly with one big cable deal, but, I think the rebound may actually take a while. What I'm saying is that I think the odds are against a quick recovery and there is always the chance of no recovery. Optimism loses money 9 times out of 10.