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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FLSTF97 who wrote (25494)	5/30/2000 12:36:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 54805

AMAT Thanks for the response. It is very useful to have my opinions confirmed (or not) by someone better informed. re: this cycle has legs through at least next year I've been listening to an ongoing discussion about whether copper, 300mm, and the explosion in chip demand for non-PC uses will make this cycle longer than most. Probably, there is no way to know, and an investor just has to follow commodity chip ASPs, chip inventories, chip demand. One ugly scenario I'm considering is: Fed hikes through 2000, recession in 2001, end of industry upcycle in 2002. That would mean investors who bought this year would have dead money until 2003 or 2004. You'd have to have a cast-iron stomach to practice LTB&H through that. It may be heresy, but I've done far better than LTB&H, with the semi-equips, over the last 5 years (2 1/2 up-and-down stock cycles), with a strategy of buying when the stocks are out of favor, and selling when industry conditions look perfect (and that outlook is in the stocks). Caveat: this requires a lot more effort than LTB&H; this doesn't apply to non-cyclicals. I don't think there is any potential for a tornado in the semi-equip industry. Rather, I think AMAT will sequentially move into (and over 1-3 cycles, come to dominate) industry sub-sectors, and thereby steadily gain market share. With the market growing, LT, by 25-30%, and AMAT growing faster, this gives 30%+/Y price appreciation, assuming you bought at a decent value. And this stock appreciation is far more reliable, than, say, with SNDK or NTAP. I'd be interested in your buy-price (or the conditions that would make you a buyer) for AMAT.