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To: Trading Machine who wrote (8439)5/29/2000 2:31:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11051
 
Thanks dude .. and I agree about those who didn't (or almost didn't) make it back.

I took a look at the slope of moving averages on the SPX today .. was surprised to see the 200EMA slope is now south.

The last time that the 200MA was south was near the bottom in '98. Bob Brinker told his folks not to be surprised by a ~20% run up in the NAZ soon. Now all of his folks are drooling over how to cash in on the jump. Some are talking about shorting QQQ puts .. I kinda feel sorry for them as most are buy and hold sort of folks.

Re 6/2 vs 6/12 .. As I said before .. 6/2 is my hope for a put entry. For the put entry to be triggered would require that the average between the high and low for the day exceed 1458.18 (cash). I would accept that trigger as late as 6/11 for June puts. After that I might consider July instead unless my "thing" signals a buy for July.

On the Kahona thread someone kinda prodded me and I figured out minimum targets for these signals of mine. The SPX has not hit them for this month yet (on a sell).

FWIW

minimum targets I figure as the total high/low movement per month for the last year devided in half. For this method to fall would mean the current month would have the least volitility over the last year. I suppose that I should just target something like 80% of that to get a reliable number. That would have had me out of the first half put allotment on Wednesday. Seems to be a better way of target than just to say "I will take no less than 50%."