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Gold/Mining/Energy : Panaco Corp (PANA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: stevedhu who wrote (64)5/31/2000 9:46:00 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 115
 
Steve,

Welcome aboard, this should be an exciting ride. I'm looking for this rally to resume once the company resumes its drilling program (which I understand is expected in the next few weeks).



To: stevedhu who wrote (64)6/13/2000 7:31:00 AM
From: Ed Ajootian  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 115
 
Will someone please throw some cold water on this one?!!!

Larry came through again as promised. He has now officially thrown PANA's hat in the ring as being interested in doing acquisitions and I would bet that his phone is ringing off the hook as we speak, with call from potential sellers. Believe me folks, there are tons of companies that are sitting on prime prospects that are just stuck dead in the water because they can't get financing. They would do anything for a shot at drilling out their plays now, with $4 gas and $30 oil --- the best O&G commodity price environment in history, even after adjusting for inflation.

Now that Larry is gonna be in the acquisition mode, assuming he is planning to utilize PANA stock as currency for such, I would suggest to him that he refrain from putting out forecasts in his press releases. This sort of stuff can only get him in trouble. As you can see, he is being very conservative, which is a good idea from a shareholder relations point of view. But the only problem is that his potential merger partner(s) are seeing the same releases, and they will use that info against him in the merger price negotiations.

There are other ways of getting the projections out in the public domain without having them look like they're coming straight from the company. He oughtta call my old buddy Chuck Strain and and have Chuck do a writeup on PANA. They can then post Chuck's report on their web site and then the projections will be there for all to see, but it won't be viewed as coming from the company, thus giving Larry some wriggle room with both his shareholders and his potential merger partners.

What amazes me the most about this rally is that it is occurring at a time when not a single drill bit is turning to the right for this company. What's gonna happen to the stock later in the summer, when we may have as much as 3 - 4 rigs going for us at once, each one drilling a huge-impact well?!!!



To: stevedhu who wrote (64)7/17/2000 9:48:05 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 115
 
Steve,

Its soon going to be time to "average up" your position!

I would expect we'll get an informal update on the latest drilling during the 2Q conference call. Regretably PANA will probably not put anything about this subject in the 2Q release. Looking forward to hearing how deep the East Breaks 109/110 well and maybe they have even spudded their next Price Lake well by now and another well they are trying to get spudded is at East Cameron.

I believe that the Burns Gustus guy would never have reiterated his "Strong Buy" until and unless they had gotten the drill bit turning to the right again.

Not sure whether they ever did anything on a hype campaign. Right now that stuff is secondary to seeing what they can tell us about the numbers. I hope they were smart enough to get S&P all primed to upgrade their bond rating shortly after PANA announces 2Q. This has no direct effect to the stock valuation but I think it will have an enormously positive impact on the stock price, due to the very clear indication that it will make that the company has very solidly turned the corner. It will also further asuage anyone's fears about the credibility of the company, and who may be shying away from this stock due to the fact that is currently traded on the OTCBB.

Now that natgas has turned under the all-important $4 mark it will be very interesting to see how the stock responds. I would have guessed that we have pulled in a lot of folks who were just trading this thing for a play on commodity prices, and that those types would start to bail at the first signs of commodity price weakness. Witness, e.g., Chesapeake Energy (CHK).

Anyone still waiting on the sidelines wanting to get some PANA, please remain patient. The stock will more than likely turn under $1.50 over the next week or two. Wait until you see the whites of their eyes, then load up.



To: stevedhu who wrote (64)8/22/2000 8:21:05 AM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 115
 
Stevedhu,

Rumor has it that Carl owns $85 M of the $100 M bonds outstanding. So the fact that he's triggered the Change in Control provisions of the indenture is a non-issue. Especially since he's agreed to buy from PANA any bonds that PANA is forced to redeem pursuant to those provisions.

I would agree with Wolf on Raging Bull that we are going to see another wild & wooly day today -- my bet would be another quarter up, maybe even half a point. The Icahn Factor has just changed from a negative to a positive. Also natgas prices are going idiotic and when they break $5 it will be a big psychological boost. The free publicity to PANA from the news on Carl buying will prove to be very helpful.

Time to raise price targets on this stock, yet again. I like round numbers, so here goes:

Halloween: $4
Thanksgiving: $5
Christmas: $6

For folks that have been hanging on the sidelines, the worst mistake you can do at this point is just keep watching. Buy the stock today. You are paying more than you wanted to, but you are buying a very different (and immensely more valuable) security that you would have bought just a month ago.



To: stevedhu who wrote (64)10/15/2000 9:28:35 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 115
 
Panaco is in very healthy shape -- Bank One Capital Markets has a "Buy" rating on their bonds.

I estimate that their 3Q cash flow will come it at around $.50/share, so with the stock at $3.375 they are selling at only 1.7 x their current cash flow run rate.

I believe we are nearing another upside breakout for this stock. When you look at the chart for what happened starting around when they announced the last quarterly results, there were several days of huge volume along with a breakout over $2. There was then a significant pullback when the news of New Valley registering to sell another block of stock came out, but as soon as that problem got rectified (i.e., Carl Icahn stepped up to the plate and took in NVAL's stock), PNO resumed its fervent climb up here to the $3.50 range. Now we know New Valley is totally out of the stock so we don't have to worry about them spoiling the party any more.

IMO the news of the test results of the A-11 well, combined with the 3Q numbers, will have a significant effect on this stock.

Thus I started buying a little more of this stock Friday and plan to continue to do so over the coming week, as long as I can obtain it at or around the current prices.

Folks must think I'm an idiot to be putting so many of my eggs in one basket, but I have neither the time nor the inclination to study all the other O&G stocks out there to try to find another good O&G stock. I want to put more money in this sector due to the high commodity prices. I _know PNO is a good stock and is as safe as an investment can be in the oil patch. So here goes nothin'.