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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oak Tree who wrote (23737)	5/29/2000 5:50:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 42787

In for a cooling off, "Gosh it's hot" ( abominable from loony toons) Some good discussion here about bears, bulls losing exuberance etc. But I have to disagree. SDLI went up 19 points Friday because they announced they would beat wall street estimates of 25 cents or some nonsense. This is close to a 200 dollar stock with earnings of 25 cents???? I wouldn't call that a fire sale of value. The "market leaders" of SUNW, CSCO, EMC and all the other "must have stocks" that I grant you I would love to own for their business models or there Gorilla status still have PEG ( PE to growth ratios) of over one averaging out to around 1.4. Not exactly cheap. HWP is trading a around a price book and sale ratio of 7. A real bear has real value but still no one wants the stock. We are talking 20% growth companies trading at PE ratios of 5-10, PEG ratios around .2- to .5 and price book ratios of under 1. I think it is too early to say we are in a bear but everyone has their own definition of a bear market. I wrote some of them on our board at our site but I think if we can't rally to some new short term highs by August, then we can guess that we are in a true bear. I personally wouldn't be surprised to see a return of exuberance when AG doesn't raise rates in June which I don't think they will do. This will likely spur a return of the exuberance where the smart money will dump the last of their losers on J6P. I keep hearing about all teh bargains out there but I don't see many at all and the ones I do see have enough "unknowns" about them to cause me to be cautious. SHow me a good stock with a PEG under one and a clean bill of health that no one wants and I will then state we are in a bear or at least getting rid of exuberance. Take a stroll around SI to the individual stock threads and they are still blaming AG for raising rates for no reason and spoiling thier fun. No one wants to admit they were caught at the top in the greater fool theory. They claim there is no inflation and AG shouldn't have done this. All I know is I make over twice what I did 5 years ago and I am only slightly better off than I was then and struggle sometimes when unexpected stuff sets me back like major car repairs, cutting phone lines etc <gg>. If it wasn't for the extra money from trading, I would be hurting. A brake job that used to be 20 bucks is now over a hundred. Car repair shops charge what lawyers used to only a few years ago. I do repairs for the airman on base just to keep them away from those bills when I can. I see airman everyday that use food stamps, automatically qualify for WIC when their wives get pregnant, and use the loan closets for furniture, pots and pans etc. It is no coincidence that there is always a mobile home park right out the front gate of every military installation across America. Cars cost what a home did not too long ago. Houses have gone up faster than the market IMO and I live in an area where home prices aren't climbing as fast as what I read here at SI in other parts of the country. I can't imagine how the non skilled labor makes it in this country. At least the military promises a home and food. Ooops, started ranting again. I also saw talk here about how the retiring baby boom generation won't dislodge teh market because they won't be pulling money out at a fast pace. I think what people forget is just how much liquidity or fresh new money is needed just to hold the market at current valuations. Just like this decline of the last couple months, it wasn't a hord of sellers but instead a lack of buyers. If the main group of liquidity injectors stops pouring in 401K money and chasing the new highest risk sector, then the market will suffer even if they don't withdraw a dime. Now what will they do as they start figuring all this out??? It will be a race for the door as their precious retirement money is now at risk. Bonds will never look so good. Have to run, Good Luck, Lee