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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oak Tree who wrote (23738)	5/29/2000 3:16:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 42787

Oak Tree, >>>> Lets say this is a bear, then how long do you think it will last. The mania is clearly over so according the the 100% rule, it is coming. No one is manic anymore and everyone is cautious. Lets say the bear is here and the markets makes it to the bottom -- different number out there but say DOW 7000-8000. How long to get there and how long to stay there. <<<< I read somewhere that TRUE BEAR MARKETs last 10-15 years, world wide. Have times change where that time frame could be reduced - possibly. Im watching the history of Wall St. on CNBC now, and it advised that the 1929 crash did not fully recover until the 1950's which was 25 years. I believe that the bottom occured in the 1940's. The bear market in the 70's lasted about 9-10 years. The bear market in JAPAN still has a long distance to fully recover and thats already 10 years. Not that it is statistically viable, but there is a hint that with technology the bear timeframe may be declining. It is a common belief that the big decline are faster than the big upswing. So as a guess, it may take 1-2 years to hit the bottom. As to how long it would stay down, my question would be how long would it take to change market psychology back to being positive. With current technological advances especially in communication, market psychology should change faster now than in the past. So as a pure guess 5-8 years. So 1-2 years for the decline and 5-8 years for the bottom/recovery. PURELY a guess. seeya