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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (25541)	5/30/2000 12:30:00 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 54805

rather an attempt to probe your assumptions and analytical model I don't think I have a perfect model sitting in a climate-controlled chamber. More than a purely logical model, I would say I have a quasi-model which is a conglomeration of "assumptions"; and I also have a gut. As long as the assumptions seem valid, the gut stays asleep. But something happens and all of a sudden the gut wakes up and smashes the assumptions. As I see it, the gut is necessary because we humans invest so much time building and nurturing our little imperfect models of the world, that we become attached to them and don't want to let them go. I don't pretend to be perfectly logical--but then again, I don't know if perfect logic would be a big help in the market LOL. My questions are, why did you stay in Q til 126, and what revenue stream do you foresee that would make it a screaming buy in the 40s? Like a lot of QCOM fanatics from last year, I thought there was a logic to the big runup at the end of last year--that was my big assumption. This was backed up by little assumptions--about things like HDR, cdma2000 adoption, and so on. At some point, those assumptions started to break down. China's reneging on the CDMA buildout did not sit well with me, nor did things like DDI's leaks about W-CDMA. Eventually these things reached a critical mass--a paradigm shift LOL! So my gut woke up and smashed the assumptions. Something like that. I did not figure I would get too interested in QCOM again, but then the stock did a funny thing: it went down another 60 points. So all of a sudden this stock that I had written off is now looking like it will come into buying range (or perhaps it is already there), and I am paying attention to it again. Kind of like questioning my assumption of not being interested in QCOM. In the 40s, I believe the IS-95 rev streams alone will justify the price and it should be a good buy. I don't expect it to go that low. (Under 100 surprised me, too.) But ya never know! OK, I still think QCOM's a chimp. In the 30s or 40s, it would be like Apple the Chimp was when it was below 15. They will have a BusinessWeek cover page saying "QCOM RIP". And then maybe it's a multibagger from there. JMWAG