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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (25546)	5/30/2000 1:37:00 AM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 54805

<Looks to me like the big boys are working very hard to exclude QC from the party.> Dude, Q is throwing this party, and they make out the invitation list. seems to me NOK is not on that list at present. i for one have changed my thinking in regards to Q needing NOK, as all the analysts at the CC ask. Turn that scenario around and what do you see? i felt all a long IJ controls this party, and his non-capitulation has proven that over and over. i also think NOK tried to buy Q, but was shown the door last year. some one is going to get hungry soon, stay tuned. just watching all the events unfolding confirms Q's position as a Gorilla. DDI, China, where is the next mine planted?, send out the Marines! Ruff p.s get it on the cheap. <gg>

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (25546)	5/30/2000 1:38:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Mucho Maas, I'm responding to both of your last two posts in this single post. I agree with you that 3G is not a slam dunk for Qualcomm. It's too far off and too many things can happen between now and then. For me, the important issue is that CDMA will be part of 3G and that fact speaks to the strength of a rather young value chain, young but strong for its youth. Every time the market begins to have doubts about Qualcomm's role (money) in 3G, the stock will tank. I expect that to happen often. On the other hand, for every reason there is to question Qualcomm's future in 3G, there used to be every reason to doubt Qualcomm's present condition that CDMA would ever have its present number of 50 million subscribers and growing strong at this time. While there is nothing etched in stone about the future, the same companies that will be ganging up against Qualcomm in the future have been doing it for a long time, rather unsucessfully in my mind when looking at the big picture. In fact, the reason the Ericsson deal was so huge is because it is a major, multi-national company that went from being a foe all the time to being a friend some of the time with a lot to gain from Qualcomm's success. The reason it appears at times that nobody seems interested in 3G that inures to Qualcomm's benefit is because the other companies would prefer not to pay the royalties. Because 3G is so far off at the moment, those very same companies can temporarily ignore the economic benefits of Qualcomm's 3G. It's in their interest to do so with the hope that some combination of forces will cause Qualcomm to cave, or better yet, that someone will eventually work around Qualcomm's IPR. But the fact that there are so many not interested in Qualcomm's version of the future doesn't mean Qualcomm is doomed. It only means the value chain has its work cut out. By the way, one reason there are so many ganging up against Qualcomm is because the royalty players' value chain is not as strong as the value chain supporting Qualcomm's proprietary standard. Unlike Qualcomm's strength, the royalty players' strength lies only in numbers. The royalty players ganging together are much like a cartel; when one company sees an advantage to break away from the group, they will do so because they have no interest in preserving the group. The cartel is weakened the first time one of its members has reason to break away. Contrast that with the value chain of the proprietary architecture. All of the players deeply entrenched in that value chain must support it because their existence depends on it. However, the Qualcomm value chain is not the classic one, nor is it the strongest one as enabling technolgies go. Witness the role Ericsson plays, working on behalf of Qualcomm's value chain one minute and on behalf of the royalty players' value chain the next. That's one reason I agree that nothing is etched in stone about the degree of Qualcomm's success in 3G. In summary, if your re-entry price is $40, there's no question that betting on the degree of Qualcomm's success in 3G is better placed at $40 than $200. But long before we get to 3G, there's another potential tornado in HDR. If Qualcomm can get a string of related tornados going as Cisco did, 3G will be Qualcomm's to lose. --Mike Buckley