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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (35723)	5/30/2000 9:21:00 AM
From: Kelvin Taylor	Respond to of 43080

For biotech/pharm traders here is one to watch: GELX: WALTHAM, Mass., May 30 /PRNewswire/ -- GelTex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: GELX - news) and Sankyo Parke Davis today announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted marketing approval for Welchol(TM) (colesevelam hydrochloride), a novel, non-absorbed, lipid-lowering agent. biz.yahoo.com pm bid 20 1/8.

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (35723)	5/30/2000 9:26:00 AM
From: Kelvin Taylor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

American Power Conversion to replace Mirage Resorts in the S&P 500 Index after the close of trading on Wednesday, May 31. APCC trading @ 34 7/8 +4 from Friday's close.

To: Jeff Jordan who wrote (35723)	5/30/2000 10:11:00 AM
From: AlienTech	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 43080

QCOM getting trashed.. Lately I've been messing around with retracements. This is the kind of thing you do when the market is in the shi*er and watching the stocks go up no longer applies. Anyway, since there has been a lot of discussion about QCOM on this board lately, I thought I would share a little retracement exercise with you folks. As you may already know, the most commonly used retracement percentages are 33%, 38%, 50%, 62% and 67%. From The Visual Investor: Prices normally retrace the proir trend by a percentage amount before resuming the original trend. The best known example is the 50% retracement. Minimum and maximum retracements are normally 1/3 and 2/3, respectively. Elliot wave analysis uses Fibonacci retracements of 38% and 62%. Qualcomm I calculate the beginning of the up trend for QCOM at about $6.50/share in January, 1999. I calculate the top to be about $160.00 in December, 1999. I ignore the few days above $160, as it was just a brief, hype-driven explosion. Realistically, the stock topped at about $160.00. Jan '99: $6.50 Dec '99: $160.00 Change = 160-6.50 = $153.5 38% Retracement = 0.38153.5 = $58.33 50% Retracement = 0.50153.5 = $76.75 62% Retracement = 0.62153.5 = $95.17 67% Retracement = 0.67*153.5 = $102.84 Therefore, subtracting the retracements from the $160.00 top gives the following prices: 38% Retracement = 160.00-58.33 = $101.67 50% Retracement = 160.00-76.75 = $83.25 62% Retracement = 160.00-95.17 = $64.83 67% Retracement = 160.00-102.84 = $57.16 Since QCOM has already blown past the 200 DMA (about $78), then I would suggest the next level of support is at $64.83, which is about where it is now. After that will be $57.16. According to John Murphy of The Visual Investor, "Sometimes a severe correction will retrace as much as 2/3 of the prior move. That level becomes very significant. If the correction is just that, prices rarely retrace more than 2/3. That area represents another useful support area on the charts. If a market moves beyond the 2/3 point, then a total trend reversal is most likely taking place." Obviously much of the drop of QCOM can be attributed to the uncertainty regarding the China situation. However, if you believe the market knows what it is doing, then you must be concerned if the price closes below $57.16. That would be a strong signal that the market has lost faith in the ability of this company to be as profitable as once thought. You can buy anyway and bet against the market, but that entails significant risk. -surfcr8z