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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TATRADER who wrote (53376)	5/30/2000 8:28:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116767

Gold and the XAU are strong buy and holds here into July. Very Good Money will be made from these levels IMO: A Double. The Dollar is Toast.

To: TATRADER who wrote (53376)	5/30/2000 6:34:00 PM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116767

... and I agree with the post that our bottom is in with POG at 270.00. I, on the other hand, disagree. Consider this. Suppose you have 7 currencies all related to the price of gold: USD, CDN, DEM, AUD, GBP, FRF, JPY. Then you multiplied these values, and take the 7'th root of the result. And call this a world gold index. W-Au := (USDCDNDEMAUDGBPFRFJPY)^(1/7) This will actually produce a less volatile price of gold then the individual currencies. This has a net effect to actually give deterministic gold directions. Next, us a currency index such as the SDR {www.imf.org} based in gold price. And determine a world/Au price divided by SDR/Au. And you get a currency index. This index correlates to world growth. Together the two charts: members.home.net Can be used to predict an absolute lower and upper range for the price of gold, which does correlate since 1973. So those that suggest a lower US dollar will bring an increase in Price of GOLD are neglecting the fact that a higher Euro can also cause a lower price of gold. It is only when you compare all currencies together that you can determine the real direction. So with that said, the lows of the Euro should now be in. AKA it is unlikely that the Euro will fall any more relative to the US dollar. So the US Dollar index should be nearing it's maximum. This may cause those brokerage and banks that hedged against a falling Euro {by buying gold} to sell their gold and repurchase the Euros. This will drive gold back down lower. The lowest possible point is at around $240 but it is unlikely to see 5% of the lowest possible. So a low of $252 is plausible... as was stated back in Dec 99. The maximum equates to $315 now. It is a growth of economies, and thus the world, that undermines gold valuation. Look at the currency index chart for the summer of 98. Hutch PS: Although you might think the World/Au chart is very similiar to the POG/USD charts, you'd be wrong. The volatility of the POG/USD is much, much higher.