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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (36446)	5/30/2000 11:06:00 AM
From: double-plus-good	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

heinz, i can't remeber where i read it over the weekend, but someone who works with the commodities complex was saying that there has been an about-face regarding supply/demand concerns. from being concerned with ability to meet demand from falling stocks, the concern appeared to be shifting toward whether purchase commitments would be honored. anecdotal evidence concerning the slowdown in purchasing of autos would appear to support the suggestion that supplies of aluminum and steel may not end up as small as they would be expected to otherwise. i have looked at some charts of stockpiles of aluminum and nickel, and it seems that there are some very favorable supply deficit situations developing...combined with what appears to be some inevitable pricing leverage with rising costs. the specific markets mentioned were nickel, aluminum, steel and timber. the anecdote as i recall it may explain the recent performance of the paper and metal stocks which have pulled back sharply. one factor to keep in mind, i guess, is the recent performance of the natural-gas stocks. in the face of wildly bullish fundamentals, stocks like BR were hitting 5 year lows as recently as 4-5 months ago. perhaps the steels and papers can repeat something of that turn-on-a-dime performance. BS is a real stinker under 5 bucks. are there any other plays you favor in the commodities? in NG EEX has really taken off since i mentioned it to you, althoug RRC still looks attractive to me at these prices. ++