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To: Efthymios H. Zacharias who wrote (36505)	5/30/2000 3:36:00 PM
From: re3	Respond to of 42523

wow, that's SOME rally today.

To: Efthymios H. Zacharias who wrote (36505)	5/30/2000 3:44:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 42523

yes, it was posted. already the forecast has been exceeded...

To: Efthymios H. Zacharias who wrote (36505)	5/30/2000 8:19:00 PM
From: re3	Respond to of 42523

next thing you know someone on the internet will say there is no santa claus... KAPLAN'S CORNER: QUESTION: In the past you have given several reasons why you do not believe that the gold market is being manipulated. Can you elaborate on other reasons? ANSWER: Certainly. One feature of a market that is being manipulated is that there is an inconsistency between the manipulated security and closely related securities. For example, if the price of crude oil and gasoline are relatively stable or declining, while the price of heating oil has been surging, then it is possible that heating oil is being manipulated, since it is out of synch with commodities which should be closely tracking it. Similarly, if the two-year and five-year Treasury have similar interest rates, while the three-year rate is much higher or much lower, then this could also indicate manipulation (a circumstance which actually occurred several years ago). Notice that this does not mean that the given market is actually being manipulated, but that it is at least a plausible explanation. Thus, if the Australian dollar, euro, Swiss franc, and silver have been rallying or steady, while gold has been plunging, then this anomalous behavior makes it more likely that manipulation is occurring. However, in the current situation, the price of gold has been very closely following the other four financial instruments mentioned above; in actuality, gold has been moderately outperforming the euro, the Swiss franc, and the Australian dollar (and other currencies such as the South African rand). To a resident of Switzerland, for example, gold has been in a modest uptrend, especially over the period of time during which some have claimed that manipulation has been occurring. So if there really has been manipulation of the gold market, one must believe that there has been similar manipulation of the silver market and of several of the major currency markets, a contention which is obviously absurd, since even the best-capitalized consortium could not possibly have enough money to manipulate all of these markets simultaneously. Similarly, gold usually performs most weakly near the end of a lengthy economic expansion, and most strongly in the early years of a severe recession. So if we were in the second year of a significant economic contraction, and gold were declining to new multi-year lows, then the possibility of manipulation should be taken more seriously, since gold would be behaving contrarily to its historic norm. However, we have experienced the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. Therefore, it is hardly surprising that gold is undervalued now, since that is precisely when it is always undervalued. If one believes that gold is being manipulated now, then one would have to conclude that it was also being manipulated at the end of every other economic expansion over the past two centuries, a conclusion which is also absurd