Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (31618)	5/30/2000 5:58:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

They are asking why did market rallied on strong consumer confidence number, the reason techs are selling off is that old economy may not have enough 'money' as result of higher rates to invest in new economy, the facts are that although durable goods order is falling the interest rates are high the real rates are at all time high, the spreads between TB's and triple a bonds are wide but still the confidence in the economy is high, the economy is lsowing down but confidence of consumers remains high, although this number came on back of nearly three months of market correction we could have seen this number lower, I am little worried that if slow down is too fast we again would see some selling so for us ideal number is that 'confidence' remains high but GDP slows down as consumer credit becomes dearer and housing starts are dented as a result of higher interest rates, from housing to NAPM I would like all to cinfirm this trend. A number that should have resulted in a sell off led to a low volume rally if Friday falls in line we may have a higher volume rally, this market will be worst impacted by faster than expected slow down going forward in two months, the interest rates and other factors would soon appear in the numbers from next month most probably..

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (31618)	6/1/2000 12:36:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

PSE SOX NDX have crossed the 25 days MA and should remain above that for this 25 days moving average to start moving, DOT came back up very strongly still 40 point short of that 25 days MA, if Friday numbers are in line I see no problem for this market to take out the 1455 resistance, after testing 1382 in face of extreme pessimism. The levels are important tools to determine the direction, on closing basis they even assume higher importance, in last few weeks I have been very cautiously going adding positions on broken down stocks and trying to exclude noise from facts, that is how I was able to hold this test of lows the fourth time. If you all recall I had equated this range to 900-990 range on SPX, we tested that 900-990 range many a times, in present case 1382 even 1350 to 1500 is the new range with 1455 as intermediate point. Now a market that has shot up can always give back and retrace to supports that hold very well and are important for continuity of a strong bull run extending it into 6th year. I would think that best thing happened to this market is that close of yawning gap between Comp top at 5000 plus and 200 days mA. we have not only closed went below it tested traditional 2900-3000 area and built up a lot of negatives, now the economy is certainly turning down and now as I have expressed a little early that we may see a test of lows for wrong reasons that is market assuming that slow down is too fast, so my scenerio would be a take out of 1455 and test of 1492 and a retest of 1418 on news as we find economy slowing. Like my Comp DOW harmonic convergence call, this is well in advance but the scenerio I am looking at is pointing towards this, the institututions will after Monday come in not before and the smaller investors are placing themselves in but like always caution dmeands that lets see those 1020 taken out on SOX PSE and DOT takes out that 850 resistance if that materialises go in.. and try to see if you can have PSIX..SEBL GMST,,WCII..