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Technology Stocks : Vodafone-Airtouch (NYSE: VOD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jules Shear who wrote (2830)	5/31/2000 9:10:00 AM
From: MrGreenJeans	Respond to of 3175

Also, news about AirTel is a huge positive that is overshadowed right now with other news (earnings, Orange, etc.). VOD/BT/AirTel management/Spanish Banks have been in fighting for a long time about control of the company. Glad to see Vodafone finally win-out and get the mess behind them. This news by itself should be taken as a catalyst. For the record AirTel has a 3G license received from the Spanish government. A double plus for Vodafone. JMO- but in the US- I don't see VOD as a long-term player in Verizon. I see them taking the cash and going after the GSM play in the US. Maybe the Do-Co-Mo news will help accelerate Verizon IPO plans (interesting that first comments about Verizon IPO timing are coming from Gent rather than BEL even though BEL is 55% of Verizon) in US to accelerate VOD's exit rather then VOD really needing the cash given the sale/IPO's of all the other assets. I believe there are favorable exit terms for VOD with Verizon Interesting comments. I believe Vodafone would much rather be a carrier in Asia, Europe and elsewhere and not be involved in the U.S. I believe Vodafone feels the competitive, fragmented U.S. market will not be very profitable going forward. It would not surprise me at some point to see them take the cash and exit this market either. However, Barron's has surmised from sources inside Vodafone that if Bell is not ambitious and fast enough to move forward on the wireless front that perhaps Vodafone will buy Bell, take over the wireless assets, and sell the fixed line division to another regional player. So perhaps Vodafone will see what promise the U.S. market has, if any and move on this front instead. Gent also made the comment in New Orleans in February that Bell was not moving fast enough in the U.S. I took this too mean that if Bell was not more proactive a takeover was a possibility. For Vodafone to develop GSM in the U.S. they would need many more billions of dollars and a number of years to patch together a viable network. Not the easiest way to go, very cumbersome, expensive, and Vodafone would fall behind in the U.S. if they decided to stay. As for DoCoMo it does not seem they are aggressive enough to be a global player. They are taking minority stakes in global operators throughout the world which in my mind is not the way to go. They are hampered by the controlling stake that Ntt has and are hampered by the Japanese government which prevents them from using their stock as acquisition currency as the industry consolidates.

To: Jules Shear who wrote (2830)	5/31/2000 9:17:00 AM
From: JMD	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3175

Jules, I realize you were free wheeling in your last post regarding VOD's future direction in the US, particularly WRT to Verizon. If you don't mind I'd like to offer a different perspective: First, I disagree that VOD is a GSM company. Gent is as data-centric as they come and that means CDMA (more particularly HDR), which is so absurdly more efficient at data transportation than GSM as to be comical. The amount of money VOD spent for spectrum almost literally insures that they will have to maximize that incredibly valuable resource--care to discss spectral efficiency, CDMA vs, GSM? VOD and Qualcomm experimented a year ago, and then again last month, with air interface overlays demonstrating the feasibility of "linking" the two. Both trials were successful. BEL will give VOD more practical experience deploying and operating a CDMA system. Meanwhile they can watch AT&T run out of ability to service customers with their TDMA system bursting at the seams. Just my vote Jules, but I think the last thing VOD will do is leave the USA which is just now moving into the sweet spot of wireless market penetration, where as Europe is pushing 50% which historically has proven to be a (slowing) inflection point for further growth. The future is wireless data which means CDMA which means VOD will, as you say, be unified around one standard, But that standard will not be GSM: Gent's way too smart to throw his money away. best, mike doyle