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To: JD who wrote (23814)	5/31/2000 9:03:00 AM
From: drsvelte	Respond to of 42787

>>>>Under these market conditions, my idea of a "long term hold" is as long as the 5 hour MA is greater than the 8 hr MA I will hold........ You might want to follow this thread.... Subject 21685

To: JD who wrote (23814)	5/31/2000 9:36:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

JD, >>>> Fundamental reasoning for why "long term" investor's could get hit in the head with a "falling diamond"...<<<< My current mutual fund trades right now are small and are hedged with only a slight bias to the upside. Athough I did think that there was going to be some sort of rally, I did not have a whole lot of conviction so my bias was only slightly to the upside. I really dont know if this is the bottom or not, but it is fair to say that it is closer to some sort of a mid-term bottom than the top. Not to confuse things, but right now my short-term technicals are near a short-term top. But I keep on hearing over and over how this is the bottom and they could be right. But I have a firm belief that trying to predict the strong move reversal is at best a 62% probability, just slightly better than flipping a coin. So my position is why bother predicting something that only has a 62% probability. Of course many will doubt that 62% figure, but how many have been able to call all the major turns since 1998. So how many was able to call the JULY TOP and OCT 98 BOTTOM and the OCT 99 BOTTOM and the RECENT TOP with conviction. Im sure a very few did, but they were very few. So my question is why bother attempting to predict something that has low probability, thats not to say ignore it just saying not to put alot behind a low probability situation. Since Im not sure if LOWER LOWs will be produced or if this is the BOTTOM, I just wont have alot of conviction in either direction, so my trades will be small and conservative. I am aware of that DIAMOND, but if it does occur it may or may not take a few more short-term cycles. So Im not sure or comfortable with anything, so I will trade accordingly - very conservative and without any strong conviction in either direction. Seeya