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To: Boplicity who wrote (2047)5/31/2000 1:04:00 PM
From: Boplicity  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13572
 
The emotional time line of a market


Euphoria (Top in the making)--->Denial--->Fear---->Denial--->Panic--->Disgust ---->Reality and Acceptance (Bottom in the making)--->Hope--->Confusion and Indecision --->Hope--->Return of Confidence--->Building of Confidence--->Euphoria

Take note of the Denial and Hope both are listed twice and represent a feed back loop that goes back to the top for denial and bottom for hope.

We are reaching the indecision part of the recovery process. The market doesn't know what to think.

Greg



To: Boplicity who wrote (2047)5/31/2000 1:39:00 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 13572
 
SDLI vs. JDSU: Certainly SDL has had a spectacular run these past few days and might be wanting some consolidation, but over an appreciable period of time, consider:
* SDL is growing faster
* SDL is growing off a smaller base--easier to maintain fast growth
* JDSU still has premium valuation--meaning SDL has room for relative multiple expansion (keep in mind that, because SDL is growing so damn fast, all of the FY01 estimates for it are probably way lowballed)
* SDL has less than one-quarter JDSU's market cap (I expect the gap to narrow to one-third)
* JDSU is going to have to digest a big company in ETEK
* With ETEK, JDSU's market cap will be over 85BB. That's a huge market cap for a co. with JDS' revs/earnings. Also, issue may experience market-cap bloat. At the least, a double from 85BB is 170BB. That is a helluva market cap for a co. with a 2BB run-rate.
* Still some uncertainty about KK's departure from JDSU. Uncertainty at the top is not a desirable in my book!!!!
* Yesterday's announced supply agreement with SDL is more of a benefit to--guess who?--SDL, the supplier.
* SDL got a great deal in PIRI. This may in part be due to JDSU's having to sit on its hands due to ETEK merger (speculation on my part).
* SDL still a potential acquisition target, whereas that is out of the picture for JDSU with its huge market cap.

Having said that, I hope JDSU does very well. It is the bellwether for the industry. A high market cap for JDSU means a high market cap for SDL is more sustainable.

I'm posting this here only as my opinion. I don't want to defend 25 attack responses from JDSU longs. And I won't! Take it for what it's worth and feel free to disagree.

PS. SDL is THE ONE.