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To: Wowzer who wrote (67353)5/31/2000 12:44:00 PM
From: BigBull  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
Rory, I think I've come up with your answer on API's.

Hopefully the reporter has it right. If so, then Memorial Day gasoline consumption will be in next weeks numbers.

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cbs.marketwatch.com

Gasoline supplies are also expected to be up slightly -- between 100,000 barrels and 500,000 barrels -- as of the week ended May 26, while distillate inventories, which include heating oil, likely rose 2.3 million to 2.8 million barrels, the survey said.



To: Wowzer who wrote (67353)5/31/2000 6:28:00 PM
From: BigBull  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Rory. Ok the confusion is cleared on the API's. Friday to Friday, only. The numbers do NOT include the Memorial day weekend, and therein provides quite a tale.

THE story in the numbers is GASOLINE.

Gasoline stocks down big IN SPITE of:

1. Increasing refinery run rates.
2. Increasing imports (from an already high level).
3. Holiday traffic NOT included.

The 90 mbpd implied demand strongly suggests the driving season got started before Memorial day. This strongly implies verrrrry strong traffic over the extended weekend. Gasoline stocks should do an El Plunjo Diveroosky in next weeks numbers. Barring a miracle, Gasoline stocks WILL plunge below the DOE's lower operational range this summer. Maybe sooner than I thought. That may begin to induce hoarding as word gets out.

Seems as though the seasonal crude build may be ending and rolling over as refiners furiously make product. It will be verrrrrry interesting to see if aggregate stocks roll over as well. Spike to $40 a barrel?

We shall see.

Bull