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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (3202)	5/31/2000 11:31:00 AM
From: vampire	Respond to of 3339

<<Tommasso, do you really believe that the U.S. equity market is still so grossly overvalued that the DOW will fall below, say, 7000 soon? What will cause the next wave down? Hyper-inflation? Deflation? Stagflation? World war III?>> You suggest in this paragraph that it would take perhaps WWIII to bring the Dow down below 7000 - which I say is absurd. <<BTW, simply citing historic PE norms and implying that the current high PEs are way out of line isn't that much of an argument, IMO. Anyone can pull out one figure from an equation. Without the other variables for reference, one figure alone is relatively meaningless. As we should all know, PEs vary with respect to the growth rates of companies. Pointing out that there are many companies that have "high PEs" without reference to their growth rates can be a misleading point of view.>> The point is that unless one thinks the growth rate of established company's stocks (if csco keeps growing at 50% a year, they WILL BE THE GDP soon)will be perpetually higher in the future (highly doubtful) than the past, then why do they deserve higher multiples?

To: The Ox who wrote (3202)	5/31/2000 11:48:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 3339

Morons don't know what the stock market is, and to say that an outlook is "moronic" is a pretty simple-minded kind of insult. My standards for other people are not very high when it comes to grammar and diction except when they start referring to what other people say as "moronic," making mistakes that are corrected in sixth-grade workbooks. If you want to contradict someone who thinks that the U. S. stock markets in general might fall 90% from their highs, it might be best to adduce evidence to support your view. There are numerous examples of securities markets, including those in this country in the 1930s, that have in fact declined to that extent. Simply to dismiss this as "moronic" betrays a lack of information and a lack of imagination.