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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Les H who wrote (81331)5/31/2000 6:11:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin  Respond to of 132070
 
Les, So, they cut prices on chips they can't deliver to introduce a slew of new chips they can't deliver, but at a higher price. Oh, yeah, that's big news. <g>



To: Les H who wrote (81331)5/31/2000 6:43:00 PM
From: Earlie  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 132070
 
Les:

Excellent capsule comment,... "Short supply forces Intel to cut prices". (g) How true, how true

What amazes me is that neither the mainstream financial press nor the analysts are willing to discuss Intel's problems.

- Intel is STILL having problems at .18 um, and is one of the few biggies that is. This ought to be the story of the year for any serious tech analyst.

- Intel CANNOT produce micros in quantity in the 700 - 1000 mhz range, except for a few that result from "yield-picking"

- AMD can and is producing plenty of product at 700 - 1000 mhz,.... and is ramping production dramatically. Guess who effectively now owns the high end (high margin) end of the micro market? Oh how the mighty have fallen.

- Intel is going to be forced to dump RMBS very soon (as soon as it gets rid of as much of its RMBS stock as possible). This is cast in stone for any who understand this game, and as a result, RMBS is one of the best (albeit still dangerously volatile) shorts around. The only worry will be if too many shorts pile into an obvious upcoming swan dive. I'm playing this one through shorting the rallies and clearing on the bad days. Sooner or later, I'll lock in for the final stall/spin fatal dive.

- Intel's mother board problems, coupled with its huge "non-deliveries" and its clumsy attempts to cover-up its yield problems have provided the company with a very big black eye. Big PC producers are very ticked. Intel "loyalty" is, I believe, a thing of the past.

- Intel is cutting prices in a desperate attempt to hang on to at least some of its market share and to encourage clients to buy the lower end micros that it can produce. Good luck to them on this one.

- Intel's "road map" aside, don't look for INTC to make any dramatic catch-up technology moves in the foreseeable future. I have seen nothing that suggests that they are currently able to do this. I look for a continuation of their current "trailing" position for some time to come. In fact, things could worsen as purchasers become aware of the technology gap.

In the very near term, I expect the analytical crowd to start to get their minds wrapped around this situation and to start reigning in their technicolour estimates. A few of the braver souls might even be moved to discuss this nasty situation. Irrespective, there is a very large fall from grace ahead for this "darling" stock.

While it has yet to make me any dough, I am rather tickled that we had this situation thoroughly understood and in print well before the N.Y.-based analysts even had a clue about it.

Best, Earlie



To: Les H who wrote (81331)6/4/2000 8:23:00 AM
From: Les H  Respond to of 132070
 
Big Blue's Small Print

nytimes.com