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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (36886)	5/31/2000 10:16:00 PM
From: robnhood	Respond to of 42523

Luc--- Today I was quite astounded by how almost everything on my screen was red, except the S*P's, and the OEX..

To: Lucretius who wrote (36886)	5/31/2000 10:22:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42523

well, the way he's putting it, it's actually more red than green and therefore it's green from a contrarian PoV. in any case, all those black box systems know nothing but a bull market...they're not bear market trained. if you look back at great secular bears in history, there were probably many occasions when a similar system would have flashed green when in truth the bulk of the decline lay still ahead. it's one of the ways a true bear can be recognized: it must destroy dip buyers on more than just one occasion. it must produce fear and loathing, not non-chalance and lots of call buying. at the true bottom, those calling for a bottom must have been a)way too early when they first suggested a bottom might be close and b) subject to the same ridicule and disbelief that bears trying to call a mania's top are subjected to. the most striking thing about this sudden proliferation of bottom declarations is that it doesn't take into account objective yardsticks of valuation. the main point of reference seems to be how high we were, or how oversold we seem to be relative to the absurd highs, but never where we truly ARE. imo the NAZ is wildly overvalued at 3,400 and so are all the other indices at current levels. actually without saying it in those same words, many seem convinced that we really ARE in a new era in which traditional valuation measures have somehow been repudiated. recent posts on the stock market bubble thread by the fully invested perma bulls illustrate this quite nicely. using the anomaly of the past 5 years as their frame of reference, posters talk about 'different' circumstances requiring 'different' valuation metrics. so it's 'different this time' in short. yeah, sure. one guy thinks Dow 7K can not be achieved without WW3. how short memories can be...i remember not too long ago, 7K on the Dow seemed a formidable barrier...