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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bambs who wrote (36809)	6/1/2000 8:58:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Bambs- I submit to you, once again, that you are taking a too simplistic view of an economic slow-down....a slow-down (and, remember, we are talking about going from 4-5% to 3-3.5%....not any recession-type scenario......in all likelihood) does NOT affect ALL companies in ALL industries uniformly....you argue it does....the economy is much more complex than that....what does homebuilding have to do with building the internet? (Answer: Not much)...What does heavy machinery sales have to do with storage (Answer: Not much)...There are sectors that are interest-rate sensitive (very sensitive), and some that are not.....The companies that buy Cisco products are not going to effect their purchasing decisions ONE IOTA if we (temporarily) overall growth in the U.S economy slows a bit OR interest rates are a bit higher for a while.. As far as warnings, please don't bore us with reports from Coca-Cola, 3COM, E-machines, etc over the coming weeks...ie, these companies that can't execute their way out of a paper bag at the moment.....Even the last quarters, Lucent has screwed-up, while Nortel/Cisco have done well.......and these are companies within the SAME industry sector............so, one could not even drawn a conclusion about Cisco earnings from Lucent earnings (due to their mis-execution)...so, be careful with your extrapolations.....they are highly likely to be off-the-mark and uncorrelated to Cisco... I've noticed a subtle shift in bear arguments from "the interest rates are coming" to "a slowdown is coming".....IMO, hoping for continued interest hikes are a much stronger argument the bears......in a economic slowdown (but with the end of interest rate hikes), high-growth companies like Cisco become even more attractive, given other stocks are disproportionally affected by the previous interest rate hikes.. Companies like Cisco are disproportionally UNAFFECTED by a slight economic slowdown..

To: bambs who wrote (36809)	6/1/2000 9:57:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Bambs, In all due respect - you (and most bears) keep hammering on the PE issue. The reason PE's in the tech area are higher than other sectors are because earning growth rates are far FAR higher than other sectors (I'm speaking about the winning tech companies - not all the .coms which overinflate the NAZ PE). If company A is earning x, and company b is earning 2 times x, the company B should have a much higher PE - some would argue twice as high. If the retail sector has a PE of 20 then good techs should have a PE of between 60-80... and really great techs with market share leadership, vision, execution, and new potential market should perhaps be worth more. You look at historical PE without regard for growth. And I'm not talking about analysts expectations of .69 next year... I'm talking fundamentals... target markets, target market size, consumer demand, market share expectations, execution, and other perhaps less intangible factors. Those in the industry feel it... and THAT is the reason companines like JNPR, SCMR, CSCO, ORCL, EMC, and many many others have relatively high PE's and why their deserved. OG