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Technology Stocks : ADI: The SHARCs are circling! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scrapps who wrote (1745)	6/1/2000 1:10:00 PM
From: Mike 2.0	Respond to of 2882

ADI over 80 with attitude: sounds.wavcentral.com

To: Scrapps who wrote (1745)	6/1/2000 1:19:00 PM
From: Jim Oravetz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2882

From Wed. Smartmoney.com article: Experts say demand for semiconductors is healthy and orders keep pouring in. Last quarter, many chipmakers already had orders in hand for the summer quarter, explains Terry Ragsdale, a Wall Street Journal All-Star at J.P. Morgan. And that backlog has probably fattened up since then. This summer, he sees chipmakers boosting sequential revenue in the "high single digits," compared to many estimates on the Street calling for revenue growth in the low- to mid-single digit range. Another force that's helping boost summer semiconductor sales is the increasing demand for chips used in cell phones. Wireless phone sales tend to be less tethered to a cyclical event like returning to school or the holidays. If this summer quarter plays out as he expects, Ragsdale notes, this will be the third quarter in which "seasonally weak" sales ended up the opposite. Last year, the third quarter was supposed to be soft, as was the first quarter of this year. This summer should prove to be yet another strong season for the industry, Ragsdale says. A tight chip supply only adds to the industry's strength. In the last semiconductor downturn, chipmakers didn't build enough fabrication plants, so current production capacity is tight. (Since it takes roughly a year and a half to build and equip a fab, companies try to do this before an anticipated industry upswing.) Now, even bellwether companies like Intel (INTC) are having trouble churning out enough chips to satisfy customers. So the supply-demand picture looks pretty good - especially since these companies ordinarily run into trouble when they're flush with capacity and pumping out too much product. But while the industry's fundamental snapshot is clear, chip stocks have taken a hit lately. After Tuesday's run, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (referred to as the SOX) was sitting 43% higher year-to-date, but was still 24% off its March high. Chip companies and chip stocks hardly walk in lockstep these days. "Semis are unassailably strong, there's no question about it," says J.P. Morgan's Ragsdale. "But there is a question whether investors care. Investors have other issues on their minds right now and they have nothing to do with sectors. They're macro issues." That's where sentiment comes into play. Predicting sentiment in this market is like trying to nail Jell-O to a wall. Tuesday's runup aside, investors pretty much ignored the latest round of impressive earnings reports from chipmakers. In an environment where investors are more worried about interest rate hikes than revenue or earnings growth, fundamentals - no matter how good they might be - tend to get pushed aside. "The market has Greenspanitis," explains Ragsdale. But even with sentiment vacillating like a flaky boyfriend, analysts are still recommending chips. In a report titled "Yep, the Cycle Is Still in Great Shape (Uh, Just Like Last Week)," Ragsdale reviewed his top picks in the sector. They are the same ones he's been touting for more than a year. He describes them all as having "a balance between a quality business model and operating leverage." Heading his list are LSI Logic (LSI), Analog Devices (ADI), STMicroelectronics (STM) and International Rectifier (IRF). snip... Jim