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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GVTucker who wrote (36835)	6/1/2000 12:54:00 PM
From: Eric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

June 1, 2000 Microsoft's Behavior Is Helping Cisco Learn How to Avoid Antitrust Trouble By SCOTT THURM interactive.wsj.com Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

To: GVTucker who wrote (36835)	6/1/2000 1:33:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

GV- I guess it all depends on the extent of the slowdown...I do agree with those (that state) if Greenspan overdoes it..tech (stock prices) will be hurt.......ie...if he drives growth to 1% or near recession.... But, in this presidential year, I think it is wiser to bet that Greenspan's more moderate instincts will win out...If we are to believe the Washington Post (the story which was probably Fed-leaked), Greenspan wanted .25 last quarter, and was "forced" by the hawks into .50...given the most recent data, I think it is logical that Greenspan is sitting between 0 and .25 now...I think this realization (by the market) is the rally that we've seen in the bond/stock market in the past few days... Back to my latest argument... IMO, things starting changing around 1995/1996 (not coincidentally, the Naz took off on a higher trajectory at that time).....of course, part of this was the realization that the internet was here to stay...but also....in 1995-1996, I think it finally became abundantly clear that technology not only increases productivity (and therefore profits), but that, in this day of global competition, its quick implementation may be the ONLY way of increasing profits...for many industries no longer have pricing power..due to global competition.....this just occurred to me: NAFTA was also debated/passed around 1995/1996..perhaps that period was a watershed....crystalizing the belief that global competition (price competition) would only get worse going forward....and technology (and successful implementation thereof) is not only the most likely path to profits, but indeed the means of strategic advantage or even survival........One story: Wal-Mart's fabulous inventory control system was never appreciated until years after it created (for Wal-Mart) a huge competitive advantages and profits......that inventory system has literally put competitors out of business...what a clear example of the importance of implementation of the latest/greatest technology platforms....Wal-Mart's system is so successful, that Amazon has done everything they could to beg, borrow, steal the "secret formula"...for Amazon is scared to death (that without such a similar tool)...Wal-Mart will enter their space and CRUSH THEM.... So, in good times and bad, most companies will have to continue to improve their technology platforms on ALL fronts....or they may not even survive.....profitability has become, in many ways, subservient to implementation of the latest technology... So, in conclusion, I'd say yeah....many tech stocks (those that don't have huge borrowing needs and generate enough cash to fund growth internally) and those that make VITAL technology products.....may indeed be the new defensive plays! Of course, Bambs will still posts earnings shortfalls from such mediocre non-critical technology non-leaders like Emachines, 3Com, and claim that it means something to the top tier...it will not...