To: Poet who wrote (1106 ) 6/1/2000 1:35:00 PM From: RocketMan Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10876
About QCOM, I have mixed thoughts, FWIW. CDMA and CDMA-based HDR are the most efficient of the multiple access wireless technologies, and the world at large will eventually migrate towards it, as it has been doing. However, for the next 1-2 years there will be a lot of political, economic, and FUD hurdles to overcome, and QCOM's volatility will reflect those battles and investor's perceptions of the outcomes. As we have seen, few wireless companies will choose to roll over, buy QCOM's chips, and/or pay royalties unless they have exhausted all the alternatives. W-CDMA, even if it includes IPR royalties, and even if it is inferior to CDMA-2000, creates problems because it is incompatible with the current CDMA base and, if it captures a large part of the 3G market, will create enough uncertainty to keep QCOM from its earlier price projections. NTT DoCoMo has been making some aggressive moves in this area, including moves into Europe and Korea, and this can not be good news for QCOM (in the near term). Also, China Unicom appears to be expanding its GSM network, which is also bothersome as an indicator of their interest in early adoption of CDMA. Having said that, there is and will continue to be a CDMA tornado, and I believe QCOM will appreciate considerably over the next 2-3 years. But I will gladly wait for the markets to stabilize, and the technology battles to be a bit better defined, before making major investments in QCOM. Sure, send me your email and I will gladly send you a picture of my spine, though I don't know how I will contort myself to take the picture. Oh, I know, I will lay on the xerox machine -- and I promise not sit on it <g>.