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Strategies & Market Trends : Befriend the Trend Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (7878)	6/1/2000 3:57:00 PM
From: JD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39683

Nice double top forming on DIGL & SNDK....from 15 min chart...just entered small, speculative (pre-signal) shorts on both......

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (7878)	6/1/2000 4:03:00 PM
From: ToTradeWell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39683

TC - from your post about crossovers: "carried to two decimal points at the top of the graph" and "I consider .05 difference to be significant" I don't see this on my graph. What are ya'll looking at? TTW

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (7878)	6/1/2000 4:42:00 PM
From: Ken Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39683

TC, Whoever asked the MA question about using 15 minute bars with the 20 and 32 MAs was surely a good thinker. No they are not the same, though very close. And I'm afraid I'm at a loss to explain why...anyone? Mathematically, they result in a very similar look. But it's sort of like saying 5 daily bars is the same as one weekly bar. They just aren't the same. However, at least in my opinion, I believe one could probably get very used to using the 20/32, but the tendency to "tinker" would be there to an even greater degree than with the hourlies. I pretty much got away from a ten minute bar for that very reason. Although I still use it for OEX trading. Ken

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (7878)	6/1/2000 9:18:00 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39683

TC, New to the thread, and certainly curious about your strategy. The results are indeed impressive. Thought I might contribute a little on a nuts and bolts issue. Also, have you tinkered with 15-minute charts with 20 and 32 MAs to stretch out the signal? Would this actually be the same thing? No they are not the same, though very close. And I'm afraid I'm at a loss to explain why...anyone? Indeed they are not the same, and the difference is likely to be most pronounced following a trend. It is perhaps best illustrated by a simple example. If you average the numbers 1 through 32, the result is 16.5, but if you average the eight numbers 4 through 32 in increments of 4, the result is 18. For any trending sequence of numbers (stock prices), using more and smaller increments to "sample" the trend results in giving weight to earlier parts of the sequence. In other words, each of your 1-hour bars, which in the 8 period 1-hour average is represented by the single closing value of each bar, effectively gets represented by an average value for that bar, a point somewhere near the middle. If the closing price of every 1-hour bar was near the middle of the bar, the averages would be very close. But, during a trend the bars tend to close near the end; the 32 period 15-minute average will always lag the 8 period 1-hour bar average when the price is trending for several hours, at the times of the 1-hour updates. The exponential average is of course a bit more complex, but the principle is the same. More samples give rise to effectively averaging the middle of the bar instead of the close of the bar. If instead of using the close price for your average you used something like a "pivot point", (high + low + close)/3, the differences between the averages from the two sample rates would be much smaller. Dan