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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Kirk © who wrote (35418)6/1/2000 9:26:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
Kirk,

Your reasoning is precisely why I am so Bullish on these companies for the forseeable future, and would never even consider selling my shares unless we see Ciscoesque valuations. Some people claim we already are there......nonsense.

BK



To: Kirk © who wrote (35418)6/2/2000 9:11:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel  Respond to of 70976
 
Robertson Stephens Raises Forecasts for Semiconductor Equipment Industry
SAN FRANCISCO, June 1 /PRNewswire/ -- Robertson Stephens Managing Director and Senior Semiconductor Equipment Analyst Sue Billat raised her capital spending forecasts for the semiconductor equipment industry.

``We are raising our semiconductor capital equipment spending forecasts for 2000 and 2001 based on the continued imbalance that we see in chip supply and demand,'' said Billat. ``In particular, we believe that a shortage of DRAMs is imminent and that this will drive a near term step up in capital equipment spending.''

``We are raising our forecast for front end equipment industry growth projection for 2000 and 2001 to 51 percent and 45 percent, from 43.5 percent and 35.8 percent, respectively,'' said Billat. ``By our estimates, this corresponds to front end equipment industry revenues of $15.2 billion in 2000 and $21.6 billion in 2001.''

``For the back end, we are maintaining our 45 percent growth estimate in 2000 and raising our growth projection for 2001 to 42 percent, from a range of 30 to 35 percent,'' said Billat. ``By our estimates, this corresponds to back end equipment industry revenues of $15.2 billion in 2000 and $21.6 billion in 2001.''

``We believe that continued shrinks and the adoption of new materials such as copper and low k dielectrics, and the transition to 300mm diameter wafers, will continue to drive equipment industry growth through 2001 and that steady increases in bookings will continue to support the stocks going forward,'' said Billat.

Robertson Stephens is the leading full-service investment bank focused exclusively on growth companies. The market leader in technology IPOs, Robertson Stephens completed 103 deals in the US and Europe in the first quarter of 2000, valued at $40 billion, including 103 IPOs, follow-ons and convertibles. In addition, the firm completed 32 private placements in the first quarter and 37 M&A deals. In 1999, the firm completed 384 transactions, valued at $100 billion, including 233 IPOs, follow-ons and convertibles, 66 private placements and 85 M&A deals. The firm's 47 equity research analysts cover nearly 700 companies. Founded in 1978, Robertson Stephens (Legal name: FleetBoston Robertson Stephens Inc.) is a section 20 subsidiary of FleetBoston Financial Corporation (NYSE: FBF - news) and a member of the NASD and all major exchanges. Together, Robertson Stephens, FleetBoston Robertson Stephens International Ltd., and Robertson Stephens Evergreen Securities Ltd. has over 1,200 employees worldwide with offices in Boston, San Francisco, New York, Menlo Park, Chicago, Atlanta, London, Munich and Tel Aviv.

The foregoing synopses are qualified in their entirety by the more detailed information contained in the full research reports, including the discussion of certain risks associated with an investment in the above- mentioned securities contained in ``Investment Risks.''

The information contained herein is not a complete analysis of every material fact respecting any company, industry or security. Although opinions and estimates expressed herein reflect the current judgment of FleetBoston Robertson Stephens Inc., the information upon which such opinions and estimates are based is not necessarily updated on a regular basis; when it is, the date of the change in estimate will be noted. In addition, opinions and estimates are subject to change without notice. This Report contains forward- looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ significantly from the results described in the forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause such a difference include, but are not limited to, those discussed in ``Investment Risks.'' FleetBoston Robertson Stephens Inc. from time to time performs corporate finance or other services for some companies described herein and may occasionally possess material, nonpublic information regarding such companies. This information is not used in the preparation of the opinions and estimates herein. While the information contained in this Report and the opinions contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, FleetBoston Robertson Stephens Inc. has not independently verified the facts, assumptions and estimates contained in this Report. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this Report. FleetBoston Robertson Stephens Inc., its managing directors, its affiliates, and/or its employees may have an interest in the securities of the issue(s) described and may make purchases or sales while this report is in circulation. FleetBoston Robertson Stephens International Ltd. is regulated by the Securities and Futures Authority in the United Kingdom. This publication is not meant for private customers. The securities discussed herein are not FDIC insured, are not deposits or other obligations or guarantees of Fleet Bank or BankBoston N.A., and are subject to investment risk, including possible loss of any principal amount invested.

SOURCE: Robertson Stephens Inc.



To: Kirk © who wrote (35418)6/2/2000 7:49:00 PM
From: Gottfried  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
Kirk and all, the charts have been updated with the latest ww semiconductor shipments and stock prices.

ww semiconductor shipments vs SEMI orders
geocities.com

selected semi equipment stock prices vs SEMI orders
geocities.com
geocities.com
geocities.com
geocities.com

SEMI orders/shipments/btb
geocities.com

monthly ratio of SEMI orders to ww semiconductor shipments
geocities.com

monthly difference between SEMI orders and shipments
geocities.com

You can also go through Kirk's site for links.
pw2.netcom.com

Gottfried



To: Kirk © who wrote (35418)6/8/2000 7:19:00 PM
From: Robert Krauss  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70976
 
From U.S. Research Viewpoint, Goldman Sachs Investment Research, May 11, 2000,

At $85, AMAT is trading at 30 times our revised calendar 2000 estimate of $2.87 and 23 times our calendar 2001 estimate of$3.65. AMAT is trading right in line with the S&P 500 multiple despite a 25% growth rate. Assuming rough 15% EPS growth into 2002("real" upcycles usually run for 3 years, although AMAT is starting to indicate that this could be longer) the stock is trading at 20 times a 2002 $4.15 extrapolation. If investors 12 months hence were to pay today's roughly 30 multiple of calendar 2000 EPS there is still 50% 12 month upside to our $130 target from here. We continue to recommend....
Lynnie K