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To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (11715)6/1/2000 9:47:00 PM
From: The Prophet  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
The flaw in your statistics is that you must add the 30% probability of the stock going to 200 (60 dollars) to the 70% probability that it will stay at 70 dollars (49 dollars) - equals 109 fair value. Unless, of course, you believe that there is a 70% chance of it going to 0 :)