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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (10682)	6/2/2000 4:52:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78958

Jim Clarke, re NC, Nat'l Presto, AMR, Mrs. Clarke, etc. I added again today to my position in NC. This was before I saw your comments about NC in the previous National Presto post. National Presto is a stock indeed familiar to Ben Graham fans (as in the National Presto analysis in Intelligent Investor, 1973). And I agree with your conclusions about the stock now not being such a good value, even though it is safe with so much cash backup. Jim, I like your analysis of NC better than mine. Still, from my perspective, one gets a conglomerate not in great businesses, but nevertheless, a company that: raises dividends every year (for the past 6 years anyway), sells now at 1/2 stated book value, when it mostly has sold for stated book value or better, sells for a psr of .12 when it mostly has sold for a psr of .19 or more, sells for 2.3x ebitd, saw the chairman buy $1.3M of stock (@$53+ per sh.) last December. (NC trades under $38 now.) is made a "legitimate" candidate for value investors because alleged value investors Ruane, Cunniff, & Co.,Legg Mason and Franklin Resources have positions in the stock. (Or maybe THEY are the ones now selling to me and others?? -g-) I'm going to assume value investors here have already at least scanned this company and have made their initial decisions whether it is suitable for their portfolios. And my intent is not to tout this stock. I've been adding from mid 60 on down, my position is very,very small- I just have wanted now to increase it to very small. I do want to give my opinion though (yet again -g-) that it seems to me (without having any real facts) that when two alleged value investors come to the same conclusion about a stock, but come at it from different perspectives, different analyses, then that stock could very well be a darn good buy. NC 'maybe' and 'possibly' might be such an instance. My anecdotal evidence is J. Bash and P. Senior regarding SEMI. Perhaps M. Burry or J. Clarke et. al. regarding WHX. I separate this from the "Rule of 3" wherein 3 posters buy a particular stock (ANF for an example), but generally focus on the same attributes/indicators/fundamentals. ------ I've taken more profits today, selling a tiny amount of LHO (just to free up some cash for other purchases), and a little THX (recommended for purchase by Archimedes, and which was one of the very few instances which I have considered as a "can't lose" bet, and which actually has so far worked out that way. Mostly my "can't lose" buys turn out to be real horrific losers). With these funds, I'm starting to up my tiny position in American Airlines (AMR), and I've decided to bet more and follow Mrs. Clarke and add a tiny bit more to my already relatively large position in Bristol Myers (BMY). (When the stock is down my position seems totally huge, woe is me, why do I own so much-- and when the stock is up, my position just seems sooo small, I just don't own anywhere near enough). all fwiw, I've been wrong many,many times before, but I am hoping you and your Mom are right. Paul.