To: Bilow who wrote (43281 ) 6/2/2000 9:02:00 AM From: Bilow Respond to of 93625
Of interest to all, a memory tester talks about RDRAM and the memory testing market. Most interesting is the passage which suggests that the market for DDR testers is about 50% bigger than the market for RDRAM testers. (This is consistent with the industry estimates I have seen for DDR penetration in 2000):Dempa News ATE manufacturers are preparing to go to battle with each other in the market for Direct Rambus DRAM test systems. Companies are eyeing hungrily the 60 or so test systems which need to be introduced into Rambus DRAM manufacturing lines between May and June of this year. Although the market is small in number, companies view this as a crucial opportunity to gain market share and thus secure their position for future business growth. They hope to accomplish this by both stressing the multi-product testing flexibility of their Rambus systems, and working to expand this nascent market. ...Rambus to Make Up 30% of the Memory Market (?) For a time the future of the Rambus chip looked to be in peril due to concerns over the delayed ramp of Intel's 820 chipset. With that problem now out of the way, proponents of the Rambus chip are now predicting that as early as 2002 Rambus will account for nearly half of all memory chips produced. There is, however, a wide difference of opinion regarding the future demand for Rambus test systems. One executive at a prominent ATE manufacturer lamented that, "If you only had four test systems worldwide, that still would have been enough to test the total output of Rambus DRAMs in 1999." On the other hand one up-beat executive commented that, "If we can get manufacturers to install the Rambus testers in their DDR (Double Data Rate) DRAM production lines, then we will be looking at an annual market of about 150 units." The view most commonly held is somewhere between the two extremes - roughly 60 units will be sold worldwide annually. Still, considering that the average price tag of a Rambus tester is in the 400MM Yen range, it has the possibility to account for roughly 30% of the memory tester market's total revenues. ... Each of the major ATE makers are busy emphasizing their strengths in order to separate themselves from the competition. For example, despite the inherent risks of keeping an inventory of costly products, Advantest is ensuring that they have units ready so that they will be able to fill customer orders immediately. Mr. Toshio Maruyama, an executive director at Advantest and manager of its ATE sales division, adds that, "We will also be promoting our Rambus testers for use in testing of the next-generation of DDR DRAMs." ... Mr. Shigeki Katsumi of Hitachi Electric Engineering says that their company will be offering a one-pass testing solution for use in testing both DDR and Rambus DRAMs. "If we can do that then our potential market will increase ten fold." Mr. Katsumi says that Hitachi will be looking toward Korea to provide the majority of their technology wins overseas. advantest.com -- Carl