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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (14138)	6/2/2000 8:54:00 AM
From: Allan Harris	Respond to of 15132

Re: I think we have a slowdown... ....and we have still have several rate hikes, including the latest 1/2 point increase, to filter through the economy. A

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (14138)	6/2/2000 8:55:00 AM
From: Wally Mastroly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Re: Jobs data - some detail from Bloomberg(bond market loves the numbers): bloomberg.com Excerpts: U.S. May Jobless Rate Rises; Non-Census Jobs Fall (Update1) By Vince Golle Washington, June 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in May and the number of jobs outside of government fell for the first time in more than four years, Labor Department figures showed. Wages rose less than expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1 percent in May from a 30- year low of 3.9 percent in April, the government said. Businesses shed 116,000 jobs, while the government added 357,000 temporary workers to help with the 2000 Census. Combined, private and government payrolls grew 231,000, still the lowest increase in three months. Manufacturing, construction and retail jobs all fell. - .... Labor Pool Rises The Labor Department also said: -- The available labor pool -- combining the number of unemployed job seekers, plus those not looking for work in the last 12 months who said they would take a job -- rose to 10.2 million in May, based on new seasonally adjusted figures, from 9.9 million in April. -- The percentage of the U.S. population holding jobs fell to 64.3 percent from a record 64.9 percent. -- Average weekly hours worked fell to 34.4 in May from April's 34.5. That was the fewest amount of hours worked since a similar average workweek in January 1997. -- Manufacturing overtime fell to 4.5 hours in May from 4.9 hours in April. -- Average weekly earnings decreased to $469.56 during May from $470.58 during April. Labor expenses represent about two-thirds of the cost of doing business. Labor demand has been so strong that it's straining the record economic expansion, now in its 10th year, companies have told the Fed.

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (14138)	6/3/2000 11:23:00 AM
From: rsie	Respond to of 15132

I have a question for some of the knowledgeable types here....I have seen the small cap bubble in the last bear market in the mid 70's.....I believe that we have witnessed what will be a similiar event in the nasdaq....a bubble just prior to the bear .....I heard Bob state last weekend that it is not the news event that is important but rather the markets reaction to the news event. Which implies that we are following a script here that is pretty set in stone.... a bear is coming.....the script has not been set in stone how this will turn out though.....Bob has suggested the three scenarios.....If I would dollar cost average into USPIX, why couldn't I be reasonably sure that I could make money if any of the three scenarios came about? I agree that if you hold USPIX for a long time....you will loose equity....but that is why you only put a portion into the fund....thoughts?