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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Direction Predictions and BS guesses -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: the Chief who wrote (134)	6/2/2000 11:39:00 AM
From: Rextar98	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 234

The bears are calling this a 'dead cat' or a 'bear market rally'. Here are some other quotes from the bear camps: "the buying in the face of currency implosion is UFB!" "Are you buying back those calls you sold last week?" "Advance/decline also looks "painted"." "we can go back to expanding the bubble now..." "Think Like A Criminal" "it's time to refocus the worry on lower corporate profit growth because of a slowing economy." "factory orders down 4,8% ??? recessionville is calling..." "Today was a setup, the employment numbers will tank the market again tomorrow.." "This administration is heading the US economy straight into stagflation and then recession." "It is amazing how little insight people have that they just want an excuse to buy for the sake of buying." "The economy is now in trouble on the slowing side because the economy is slowing down all by itself before even feeling the effects of the first Fed rate increase 10 months ago." "More Signs of Economy Slowing" "Benkea connected with a softer dollar it is called DISTRIBUTION" "Still looking for the dump following the end-of-the-month ramp job, gotta wait until Monday or Tuesday for it to start." "<<I am hoping the market stays up today so that I can buy some bear funds real cheap in time for the big selloff I anticipate next week.>>" "Stay tuned for the PPI next week and learn." "no soft landing for the bubble economy." (Chief, you're no where near your 06/02/00 prediction! {06/02/2000 : Nasdaq 3305.11 DOW : 10,420.34} Right now we're at 10805.38 and 3770.47 - it looks like you are going to be wrong again unless we get a BIG ramp down at the close. I got my fingers crossed for ya!)

To: the Chief who wrote (134)	6/2/2000 4:18:00 PM
From: c.hinton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 234

<Greenspan has no business in the market>Greenspan is not in the market. The federal reserve is there to provide TEMPORARY liquidity to financial institutions, not loans to consumers. If worse comes to worse investors will be on their hands and knees begging him to save their butts like in '98.Would you want him to leave the market alone in a similar situation? You can't have it both ways. Yours chinton

To: the Chief who wrote (134)	6/2/2000 7:37:00 PM
From: Vitalsigns	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 234

The problem with this is "Greenspam" is still obsessed with the market, so may just pull a bonehead move to attempt to control this perceived "exhuberance". I say once again, Greenspan has no business in the market, and it should not be one of his priorities to control it. looks Like Greenie has more problems to contend with <ggg> Heres a scenario Greenspan may put himself in a catch-22 with all his jugling trying to perfect a soft landing. 1. The US dollar drops to 107.40 this morning on weak emplyment numbers suggesting the economy is indeed slowing down. 2. Gold spikes up $9 at the same time that the US dollar plunges. Gold is priced in US$ and a falling US$ makes the price of Gold cheaper in other foreign currencies. 3. A falling US$ causes import prices to rise in relative terms in the US thereby helping spur inflation. 4. Greenspan does not want to have inflation rise , so one alternative is to support the dollar by raising rates but that would put the last nail in the coffin for the expansion resulting in a guaranteed recession and a swooning Us$ dollar. So that option is out 5. Greenspan waits for next economic numbers and hopes that they are strong enough to support the dollar but weak enough to suggest that the direction is still neutral, because a strong report would boost inflation fears again . Inflation fears would be met by a rate hike and that would again result in a recession next year followed by a swooning dollar. Another weak report and the dollar slides . His ONLY hope now is to get a neutral report and do nothing with rates, anything else is Bulish Gold , bottom line. Oh yes, there is one more option for Greenie, that would be to call his friends overseas and ask for more Gold sales, but I believe the time will come , very soon, when they will reply " Not this time Greenie" , its a lost cause , " We need to raise the bar a higher for this to work." Poor old greenspan has boxed himself in with no where to go IMO. I think they allow gold to rise to $300 over the next little while with a few sharp Spikes to $350 on short covering. The Stock markets are Bullish with weak numbers , and Bearish with strong Numbers. Greenspan needs the markets in his perfect equation to stay stable (not crash and not run away). Unfortunately that is a fairy tale , so if he were to choose one or the other , I bet he lets the markets rise again (just a hunch) So we may see strong markets accompanied by strong golds. Vitalsigns