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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Pitera who wrote (1946)6/2/2000 9:48:00 AM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 33421
 
private-sector payrolls-- biggest decline since November 1991... New job growth FALLS 126,000. The offset was
357,000 temporary hires ( US Govt Census Workers)

So we are seeing the effect of the 6 federal reserve
rate hikes as predicted on This thread.

As was highlighted in the John Berry article here 8 weeks
ago Fed Monetary Policy has a 6 to 9 to 12 months Lag,
between action and result.

John


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Unemployment Rose to 4.1% in May
As Payrolls Grew Less Than Expected
A WSJ.COM News Roundup

June 2, 2000

WASHINGTON -- The unemployment rate rose in May for the first time in three months as the economy created surprisingly few jobs and generated no significant wage increases, strong evidence that the economy is cooling off.

The unemployment rate rose from a 30-year low to 4.1% in May, the Labor Department said Friday. Nonfarm payrolls, meanwhile, rose by a smaller-than-expected 231,000 jobs in May. Excluding hiring for Census 2000, payrolls declined by 126,000 jobs. The government also revised upward its estimate of April payrolls, raising it by 74,000 to 414,000.

The result was scant inflationary pressure. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1%, or one cent, to $13.65 in May. In annual terms, hourly wages rose 3.5% in May, down from the 3.9% gain recorded in April. And workers put in fewer hours on the job: The average work week shortened by six minutes to 34.4 hours, another sign the economy may be slowing.

Economists survey by Thomson Global Markets expected the unemployment rate to remain steady at the 3.9% level recorded in April and for payrolls to increase by 388,000 jobs. Earnings were seen coming in at $13.67.

Friday's report thus is a strong sign that the Federal Reserve's year-long campaign of interest-rate increase is cooling the economy.

Recent soft readings on retail sales, home sales and manufacturing activity also have pointed to some moderation in economic activity.

The Labor Department said most of the job creation in May was at the Census Bureau, where 357,000 people were hired for the government's once-a-decade population count.

On the hand, private-sector payrolls posted the biggest decline since November 1991, falling by 116,000 jobs in May. That's down from April's increase of 296,000. Manufacturing payrolls fell by 17,000 during May, the first decline since February. Factory payrolls expanded by a total of 13,000 in March and April.

The service-producing sectors created barely half as many jobs in May as in April. Service payrolls rose by 278,000 jobs after a 435,000 increase in the prior month.





To: John Pitera who wrote (1946)6/2/2000 10:31:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
John,

Here's an earlier post of mine on the pattern site...

Well.., I don't know that much, I've only looked at a few that he has publically posted.

But like price bars on charts that form patterns which seem to repeat and predict market psychology (wiggles) some traders have discovered that there are patterns within days that repeat themselves and predict market psychology. These days run in cycles as well as trading patterns for buy and sell points.

There are 3 and 5 bar patterns that are very accurate on any time frame....why shouldn't there be 3 and 5 day patterns that are accurate and even the times within those days for anticipated movements...?

Try printing the page and watching the swings and see if the times posted generally match up. When they fail that is also a signal and needs to be traded much like fork time projections....very nibble and quick.

It's an art form....much like P&F charts.

Patrick Knows

Chip