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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hueyone who wrote (7879)	6/2/2000 11:11:00 AM
From: Starlight	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

New technology lets JAVA run without an OS: embeddedtechnology.com{66EE7BC6-372B-11D4-8C3D-009027DE0829}&Bucket=Industry+News

To: hueyone who wrote (7879)	6/2/2000 11:12:00 AM
From: JGoren	Respond to of 10309

wind down 1 at this time; not sharing in the rally. may be some folks taking money out of wind and putting it into things that have shorter time frame for profit.

To: hueyone who wrote (7879)	6/2/2000 11:18:00 AM
From: peter grossman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

The new WIND seems committed to informing investors much better than in the past. They've reported on new metrics -- royalties and design wins -- and promise more in the future. They also seem dedicated to becoming the gorilla. I think we are slowly getting a picture that Allen has been painting all along. If you view the $20.6M royalty number as the aggregate lilies in a whole lot of ponds, and the 847 design wins as seeding new ponds, you can extrapolate lines like, "In this sense, I agree that WIND will not be the next Microsoft. WIND is headed for a far more exalted accomplishment." In explaining the DSL pond, if I got this right, David Fraser used the exact markers Allen pointed out: WIND's market share (in 70% of the products), product area growth rate (over 100%, going from 1 million units last year to 20 million in three or four years), and movement up the value add chain. Using gross guesstimates, if WIND's current royalty is .25% of a $300 retail DSL modem price, or $.75, then there were about 750,000 ($) in the DSL lily pond last year. If the projection of 20 million units is right, there will be 15 million lilies in 2003! But wait, if I got this right, David Fraser said that in the next two or three quarters, there will be a "Tornado for DSL," akin to TMS, so the royalty may well be $3.50 instead of $.75, and in 2003 there will be 75 million lilies! The overall royalty number was 33% of product revenues, and product revenues grew 47% over last year. These are eyepopping numbers, implying that summer has indeed arrived and the aggregate lilies are starting to exhibit noticeable growth. I began to wonder why WIND could not muster a better profit when 22% of total revenues essentially falls to the bottom line. I think this speaks to a dramatically stepped up investment in product development, also in the numbers. The increase in service revenue was smaller than in the past, as I recall. It seems plausible to me that WIND is using new engineers for product development rather than professional services in an effort to introduce new vertical solutions without making the mistake of announcing dates they may miss. I believe that WIND is attempting to accelerate an already high rate of growth in revenues, market shares, profit margins and profits while simultaneously also accelerating product development and fullness of vertical solutions. Seems they've succeeded in every way except profits, which appear on the horizon. I found this WIND's most encouraging conference call.