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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pann1128 who wrote (25720)	6/2/2000 11:55:00 AM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

I will concur that the synergy between the two can and probably will fuel as well as feed upon each other. This will also extend to the electronic book/magazine/news/media platform as well. Can you actually have an advertising tornado without an EPG tornado? In regards to the advertising without the EPG question I would say yes. Advertising depends on a critical mass being reached. Once reached advertising revenues tend to ramp exponentially although it may take quite a few years to reach that ramp. This seems to be the case with GMST. Once the TV Guide merger closes GMST will have a 6 to 7 million base. This is above and beyond the 5 million critical mass figure often cited. Estimates are for at least 10 million by the end of 2000. That is a critical mass for advertising. In regards to the EPG/IPG Tornado: part of my enthusiasm is derived by news coming out of BRCM (a stock which I once again own and am tickled pink to resume our very profitable relationship - 7 bagger in 1 year including short-term LEAP plays (which I did not dare buy this time around, and I do believe I won't be trading BRCM again - as similar to the Chaz story I believe, having started out with little money last year (was this the Chaz story?), I now have something worth protecting and will be very happy with mere "Broadcommian" returns from here)). Set-top boxes are clearly entering a Tornado. Estimates for set-top box delivery from Motorola (via GIC), and SFA, which were already aggresive have been revised upwards by 50% or so. EPG and IPG will be in many of these set-top boxes. Other articles are describing the surging demand for digital cable such as from U.S. West in the Twin Cities area. If memory serves GMST will be in U.S. West boxes. What could be happening with the IPG/EPGs is that despite what seems like a set-top box Tornado and a DBS Tornado, that an overall Tornado is not developing due to the overwhelming number of televisions. Television sales will only grow so fast, and this may hold down the overall licensing revenue growth due to the large numbers. Then again, maybe we are experiencing a Tornado there as well. It is just not clear at this time as the numbers are too convoluted and Henry won't break them out for us. What is clear is that GMST's stock price over the last 3 days is jumping like a just confirmed Gorilla should be jumping (ie, remember Q during its threshold days as a confirmed Gorilla). This is of course happening during a large market rally, but GMST is out rallying the market. All I can say is, that until the numbers become more clarified in regards to EPG licensing, that it seems clear that GMST has reached an inflection point in its business that has me very excited and thankful that I had so many opportunities to continue to buy into GMST over the last several weeks and year. Tinker Thanks NY Stew whose posts on Yahoo! sometime in the forgotten past influenced my purchase of GMST (my second stock purchase ever, after NTAP) even before I even knew what a Gorilla was. P.S. In regards to eBooks. The synergy possibilities do indeed exist. I think the product adoption cycle of eBooks is no where near the chasm at this point in time, however. It may be a few years as obstacles to it crossing the chasm still exist and have not yet been addressed. But as long-term holders, good to see the potential coming down the pipeline.

To: pann1128 who wrote (25720)	6/2/2000 12:19:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

piyush, Can you actually have an advertising tornado without an EPG tornado? Yes. Assume a scenario in which EPG is growing at a fast rate but not the rate symptomatic of a tornado. Also assume the advertising rate grows much faster. If there was only one ad at one rate per EPG/IPG it wouldn't be possible for those two situations to co-exist. But because there can be exponentially more ads than EPGs/IPGs and because successfully targeted ads might generate higher ad rates, it's fairly easy for me to imagine a tornado in ads taking place without a tornado in EPGs/IPGs. The confusion about revenue does give credence to counting the EPGs/IPGs just as we count the CDMA subscribers for similar reasons. --Mike Buckley