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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1963)	6/2/2000 11:49:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Hi Henry, You advance a very intriguing thesis. You are absolutely correct that the rate of growth of the Monetary Aggregates has really declined this year, and the Negative Money Multiplier effect certainly Magnifies the constrictive impact of the Fed's cycle of Rate Rises. The Turbo Liquidity drawdown. That liquidity had a lot to do with the surging economic conditions through the first quarter (accounting for lags). It's impressive that the Fed did not get really serious on draining liquidity until after the last potential Y2K date was passed (the so-callled Feb 29th Leap year issue) The Market was at it's Zenith of Contrarianism in that as soon as the All Clear signal was given on Y2K, the equity Market Promptly topped out in a week or two. That was theoretically the time to Party for Equities as Y2K was pretty much an Urban Legend (it sure fooled me -g-) Greenspan an old Cobal Programmer, seems to have waited for Y2K concerns to prove themselves unfounded and then the Fed really got serious -g- It makes perfect sense in retrospect... doesn't it. Currit tempus contra desides et sui juris contemptores * Time runs against the slothful and those who neglect their right * (Yes, It's a Latin Firday on SI... Marie and I are having a ball -vbg-)