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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (5207)	6/2/2000 11:45:00 AM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 34857

Tero, << I'm relieved to see they didn't threaten to build a GSM-1800 network on their own if they're spurned. Reverse blackmail is a lot classier. >> LOL! Point well taken (and I agree). That was a stretch, IMO. The view from Europe: >> NET MASTERY IN THE AIR - INSIDE EUROPE gprsworld.com By CLIVE MATHIESON May 29, 2000 Mobile phones have Europe poised to take the lead in the Internet evolution. Clive Mathieson reports North America led the early development of the Internet. It now appears certain, however, that Silicon Valley will be forced to hand over the privilege of leading the next stage of the Internet evolution to Europe's emerging telecoms giants. There can be no doubt that the European telecoms industry - from mobile phone handset manufacturers such as Nokia and Ericsson, to global mobile phone operators like Vodafone AirTouch - has usurped America's title as the centre of Internet innovation. Europe holds several advantages over the US. The most obvious is the homogenous GSM mobile standard across the continent, compared to disparate standards still in place in the US. European regulators are also in the process of opening up new spectrum for third-generation mobile technology, as well as Internet-enabling bridging technologies such as wireless application protocol (WAP) and general packet radio services (GPRS). The current 3G licence auctions in the UK, expected to raise up to pound stg. 5 billion (about $A14 billion), have attracted bidders from throughout Europe and as far afield as Australia, Japan and the US. Importantly, the rise of European dominance in mobile data technology - the next big trend in telecoms - has coincided with a dearth of remaining industry consolidation opportunities in North America. This has prompted acquisitive telecoms groups, seeking global scale, to look to Europe just as governments across the region are fully embracing telecoms liberalisation. Recent figures from Broadview, the US investment bank, suggest that $US363 billion worth of European telecoms deals were carried out in 1999. This is, according to Broadview, a staggering 22 times the amount of transaction activity handled the previous year. Vodafone AirTouch's audacious $US128 billion takeover of Mannesmann of Germany - the biggest takeover deal and the first hostile bid for a German company by a foreigner - exaggerated the difference. But deals such as Olivetti's takeover of Telecom Italia and Deutsche Telekom's tilt at British mobile operator One2One contributed to the massive increase in deal flow. According to telecoms analysts, more deals are a certainty in 2000. France Telecom is looking for merger partners, possibly British Telecom or Telefonica in Spain. And Orange, the British mobile operator which will have to be sold by Vodafone when it completes the Mannesmann deal, is a tasty target for France Telecom or Dutch group KPN. The prize is a stake in a mobile phone revolution, where handsets will deliver access to a raft of Internet services, from banking to music and online shopping. Most commentators believe that within two or three years more than half of all Europeans will own at least one mobile phone - a mark already reached in Finland, Norway and Sweden. Merrill Lynch believes mobile phone penetration in western Europe will hit 80 per cent by 2003, compared with about 37 per cent at the end of last year. In the US, mobile penetration will grow at a far more sedate rate, climbing from 32 per cent to 52 per cent in the same period. Cellnet, the mobile phone operator now 100 per cent owned by BT, is signing up 4000 new customers a day to its Genie WAP mobile phone service in the UK. Cellnet expects to sign up 500,000 subscribers between April and June and will invest pound stg. 160 million to roll out WAP services, based on Genie, worldwide. The pervasiveness of mobile phones in Europe and the advance of Internet technology means most mobile devices in Europe could have Internet access by 2003-04. Worldwide, it is predicted that there will be 1.1 billion mobile Internet users by early 2004. WAP announcements and alliances are a daily feature of the European press. It appears the only issue holding back the take-up of Internet-enabled mobiles in Europe is limited availability of WAP handsets. "The mobile Internet is really exploding in Europe," says Mike Lawrie, head of IBM Europe, which has identified the mobile Internet market as one worthy of heavy investment. Lawrie says the US led the early Internet developments because of the high penetration of personal computers in North America - about 47 per cent of the population compared with 29 per cent in Europe. But as more and more people access the Internet over mobile phones and handheld computers, such as Palm Pilots, he says Europe could overtake the US as the centre of Internet innovation. Clive Mathieson is a London-based contributor. (c) Nationwide News Proprietary Ltd, 2000. AUSTRALIAN (THE) 29/05/2000 (C)Copyright 1999 Reuters Limited. << - Eric -

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (5207)	6/2/2000 9:07:00 PM
From: JohnG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Tero.Forrester sees W-CDMA as years away. JohnG wirelessdesignonline.com. European Report Say Higher Mobile Speeds Will be Late 3/24/2000 Despite the hype surrounding higher mobile speeds, European managers may have to wait longer than they think for 2.5 and 3G solutions, according to a new report from Amsterdam-based Forrester Research B.V. The report outlines how companies must act on new mobile opportunities to serve customers better, strengthen ties with partners, and boost internal productivity while hedging their bets on shaky technologies. "Hype from vendors like Nokia and operators like Orange says that European firms will get 2 Mbps speeds on mobile devices and connect anywhere at anytime?all by 2002," explains Lars Godell, analyst for Forrester Research B.V. "The reality is that gradual, uneven bandwidth upgrades will creep along through 2007 and only city areas will see 2 Mbps speeds by 2007." Forrester believes that Europe's high-speed mobile future will be enabled by a series of new mobile network technologies like General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS). These technologies will transform the way corporations serve customers, reach business partners, and communicate internally -- but only after they are widely standardized and implemented. "To increase mobile speeds and global connectivity, new technologies are being developed, including always-on packet-switched connections and Bluetooth, a short-range radio technology that allows high-speed communication between devices and networks," added Godell. "The benefits these technologies offer will arrive later than promised for a number of reasons, mainly because operators will not be able to justify the huge investments needed to build an entirely new mobile network. Shaky standards and incompatible handsets will also give early adopters a bumpy ride." Forrester believes that only technologies requiring minimal upgrades to existing networks and handsets, like High-Speed Circuit Switched Data (HSCSD), GPRS, and Bluetooth, will see widespread adoption before 2005. Operators and firms that adopt HSCSD this year will enjoy first-mover advantages, while riskier network technologies like Enhanced Data Rate for GSM Evolution (EDGE) will fade away, and UMTS will arrive late. For the Report "Mobile's High-Speed Hurdles," Forrester spoke with 47 corporate IT managers as well as 46 mobile operators, telecommunications equipment suppliers, software houses, and systems integrators. When asked when they will roll out high-speed mobile data services as part of their business, 53% of executives interviewed said that it would depend on market readiness, while 19% said that they might not use it. Additional information this and other reports from Forrester Research can be found at www.forrester.com.

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (5207)	6/3/2000 12:31:00 AM
From: JohnG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Tero. You really don't get it do you? On question of Europe incurring US ire by thumbing nose at WTO principles. 1) Will the rest of Europe and Britain incur US ire to support Finland and Sweden. Is it to the benefit of the rest of Europe that Finland and Sweden, two economically obscure European countries, retain their stranglehold on world wireless. Is it to the benefit of Japan that this "monopoly" continue. 2) Would opening Europe to MC CDMA help better spread the wireless market to France, Germany and Britain? Why should the rest of their Europeans die for their nordick Finnish and Swedish brothers. Why not have a fresh start where all countries have a chance to see their favorite wireless mfg companies take a share in the market. To accomplish this, simply use QCOM ASICS and reference designs. If the Chinese can do it, then surely the French and Germans can do it. 3) These are not banana's and beefs. NOK and ERICY sell a lot of equipment into N America. Those sales should be put at risk by their thinly veiled monopoly to shut MOT, Nortel and Lucent out of Europe and by extension, operating out of that monopoly, limit their access to the rest of the world JohnG

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (5207)	6/3/2000 12:02:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

tero: But perhaps less effective. Brazil is a fun case, since the "incentives" are traditional. (Once called bribes - but of course, not now). But what will actually happen is that Brazil will go to CDMA for sure. The frequency choice is a bumb in the road. Since you are a closet USAphile (just my obervation, no way to really know of course - and probably wrong - you love Europe to your toes, no?), you of all people know the old add about the grizzled guy who used to say about oil filters, "you will either pay me now, or pay me later" That is the mantra for Qualcomm. The other image, which should appeal to you since it is dark, is the spider waiting in its net. Qualcomm is the spider, and CDMA is its net. There is no way to avoid CDMA and therefore no way to avoid paying Qualcomm. What reverse payments may or may not be are noise. Time is on Qualcomm's side. Wish it were on Nokia's - but Nokia's advantages ( such as they are), are decaying rapidly in the face of the Asian tidal wave of phones with the best technologies and the lowest costs. Bye bye Nokia. Nokia handsets unter alles. Best. Chaz